Americas - North America RegionalPULSE: 15 MAY 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in North America.

• Haiti’s state fragility continues to deteriorate as gang control expands and public protests intensify, placing pressure on transitional institutions. The U.S. designation of gang coalitions as terrorist entities and ongoing multinational security efforts have yet to significantly alter on-the-ground dynamics.
• Mexico faces dual pressures from escalating electoral violence and institutional instability. The killings of two mayoral candidates and human rights concerns over judicial reforms compound insecurity, while U.S. sanctions targeting cartel-linked fuel theft highlight deepening cross-border criminal tensions.
• Cuba’s energy crisis has spread to the capital, prompting daily blackouts and eroding public confidence. The U.S. re-listing of Cuba as “not fully cooperating” in counterterrorism further isolates Havana diplomatically and economically.
• Guatemala’s democratic backsliding is underscored by the arrest of Indigenous leaders on terrorism charges. Simultaneously, militarized border operations signal an intensification of state security priorities along the Mexican frontier.
• The U.S. is recalibrating economic and security policies, including a drop in domestic oil and gas activity and a shift in China tariffs. The expansion of militarized border zones reinforces a hardline approach to migration, while legal resistance emerges against controversial deportation policies.
• El Salvador continues to challenge global norms by expanding Bitcoin reserves despite IMF opposition. 
• Panama’s strategic infrastructure is at the center of geopolitical friction, with China suspending the sale of canal-adjacent ports to U.S. firm BlackRock. Meanwhile, Nicaragua deepens cybersecurity ties with Russia, reinforcing its tilt toward authoritarian allies.
• The Dominican Republic enhances its regional leadership through support for the Haiti mission, and Costa Rica strengthens institutional resilience via public awareness campaigns targeting synthetic drug threats such as fentanyl.