Americas - North America RegionalPULSE: 19 SEP 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in North America.

• Mexico-China Trade Tensions: New 50% tariffs on Chinese, Indian, and South Korean imports heighten trade frictions, with Beijing threatening retaliation ahead of the 2026 USMCA review.
• Cartel Money Laundering Networks: U.S. Treasury alerts expose $312 billion in suspicious transactions between 2020–2024, revealing Mexican cartels’ reliance on Chinese networks and shadow banking systems.
• El Salvador’s Reserve Diversification: A gold purchase increased holdings by 31.8%, complementing controversial bitcoin reserves. Concurrently, new tax incentives aim to attract geothermal investment, strengthening renewable energy ambitions.
• Cuba’s Energy Fragility: A nationwide blackout underscored systemic vulnerabilities in the grid. Despite partial recovery and Chinese-backed solar projects, chronic outages, declining oil imports, and public discontent remain critical risks.
• Guatemala-Belize Border Dispute: Guatemala rejected Belize’s sovereignty claim over Sarstún Island and reported recent incursions, while reaffirming commitment to resolve the century-old dispute through the International Court of Justice.
• Dominican Republic Migration Crackdown: Over 215,000 Haitians deported in 2025, including pregnant women detained in hospitals, amid heightened border militarization. The policy draws international criticism and risks labor shortages.
• Child Trafficking Along DR-Haiti Border: Arrests in Ouanaminthe revealed networks luring minors with false job promises, highlighting systemic poverty, institutional weakness, and cross-border vulnerabilities.
• Haiti’s Security Collapse: Gangs control 90% of Port-au-Prince, with massacres in Laboderie underscoring extreme violence. U.S. flight restrictions extended to March 2026 further isolate the country and deepen the humanitarian crisis.
• Nicaragua’s Growing Isolation: The U.S. designated Nicaragua a key drug trafficking hub, withdrew the DEA, and expanded sanctions, eroding regional trust in Ortega’s “muro de contención” strategy.
• United States Domestic Security Strategy: Trump’s deployment of the National Guard and federal agencies to Memphis, with Chicago next, reflects an increasingly interventionist crime-control approach, sparking debates over militarization.
• Canada’s CUSMA Preparations: Ottawa launched consultations ahead of the 2026 review, while Prime Minister Carney signed a new strategic partnership with Mexico to strengthen infrastructure, security, and environmental cooperation.
• Panama’s Energy Strategy: Plans for a 77-km gas pipeline by 2027 aim to restore market share in Asia and reinforce Panama’s role as a global energy transit hub.
• Costa Rica’s Prison Initiative: Approval of a $35 million maximum-security facility inspired by El Salvador’s model signals a tougher approach to crime, though with more flexible inmate policies.
• Honduras Migration Setback: A U.S. appeals court authorized the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 60,000 Hondurans, ending decades of legal residency and work authorization, with significant humanitarian consequences.