Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 16 DEC 2025
Report Focus Location: South America
Authors: MF
Contributors: GSAT, CC
GSAT Lead: MF
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Executive Summary
South America faces accelerated political transition and heightened security volatility through Q1 2026. Chile's decisive rightward shift under President-elect Kast, escalating U.S.-Venezuela maritime confrontations, and persistent prison violence in Ecuador signal elevated operational risks. Stabilizing factors include Bolivia's diplomatic opening, conditional ELN peace signals in Colombia, and positive economic trajectories in Peru and Paraguay.
On December 14, José Antonio Kast won Chile's presidential runoff with ~58% of the vote—Chile's most significant political realignment since 1990. Expect tightened immigration controls, enhanced security measures, and fiscal austerity upon his March 11 inauguration. Bolivia restored diplomatic relations with Israel on December 9-10 and announced visa waivers for eight countries including the U.S. and South Korea, signaling reorientation away from Venezuela-Russia-China alignment.
U.S. authorities seized the Venezuelan-linked tanker "Skipper" on December 10-11, escalating sanctions enforcement. Since September, 22 U.S. strikes on vessels near Venezuelan waters have resulted in 87 fatalities. In Ecuador, 13 inmates died at Machala Prison on December 7-8, confirming prisons remain central to criminal organization power dynamics despite military deployment.
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GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
Dr. Marko Filijovic is a Special Advisor for Riley Risk with expertise in geopolitical risk, security intelligence, artic defense and threat analysis. He holds a PhD in Security Studies from the University Of Beograd.
Claudio Costa, Regional Security Analyst at Riley Risk, provides security analysis, and reporting for the RileySENTINEL platform, delivering insights for complex environments.
