Sentinel Summary

This report presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in South America.

Regional Security Conditions Deteriorated: Driven by armed conflict, criminal violence, and unprecedented geopolitical escalation; Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela experienced heightened instability linked to insurgent activity, organized crime, and state security responses, while impacts remained localized in parts of Peru and Suriname.Colombia’s Eastern Borderland Tensions: Ongoing clashes between guerrilla groups and the military in César and Norte de Santander causing casualties and civilian displacement. The deployment of additional security forces to the Venezuela border, following U.S. strikes, has further militarized the region and increased humanitarian and migration pressures, particularly in Catatumbo.

Bolivia Removes Fuel Subsidiaries: The nation is facing sustained nationwide unrest following the removal of fuel subsidies, as Supreme Decree 5503 triggered strikes, road blockades, and mass protests led by transport workers, miners, and unions. Clashes with police in La Paz underscore elevated social volatility, with negotiations failing to contain unrest, particularly in western regions.

Ecuador Violence Spike: Ecuador records one of its most violent years, prompting President Noboa to impose a 60-day state of exception across nine provinces. An 18% rise in intentional killings reflects acute internal security challenges and signals intensified law enforcement activity with potential implications for mobility and operations.

Informal Mining Violence In Peru: Criminal competition linked to informal mining continues to drive localized violence in northern Peru, particularly in the Pataz gold-mining district. While fatal attacks underscore growing criminal entrenchment, authorities assess these incidents as geographically contained rather than indicative of nationwide security collapse.

Economic Developments in Argentina, Peru, and Uruguay: Macroeconomic and policy developments provided selective stabilization signals across the region. Argentina’s repayment of U.S. credit line funds strengthened market confidence; Peru’s authorization of private investment in Petroperú aims to stabilize a key state asset; Brazil successfully de-escalated labor unrest in its energy sector; and Uruguay maintained one of the lowest inflation rates in decades.

Socioeconomic Risk in Paraguay, Bolivia, and Columbia: Socioeconomic pressures remain a critical risk multiplier, particularly where inflation and subsidy reforms intersect with political fragility. Rising food prices in Paraguay, fuel-cost shocks in Bolivia, and humanitarian displacement in Colombia underscore ongoing stress on vulnerable populations.