Executive Summary

U.S. military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026 reshaped the regional security environment. The operation resulted in the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face federal charges in New York for drug trafficking and terrorism. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed interim leadership, while armed pro-regime militias intensified repression in Caracas. The intervention triggered deep regional divisions: Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Paraguay expressed support, while Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba condemned the action as a sovereignty violation. The UN Security Council held an emergency session, and European protests erupted against U.S. foreign policy.

Cuba faces an acute fuel and energy crisis threatening national stability. From February 10 through at least March 11, 2026, no jet fuel is available at any of Cuba's nine international airports, forcing Air Canada to suspend flights and deploy empty aircraft to repatriate approximately 3,000 stranded passengers. The crisis stems from U.S. sanctions threatening tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba, which cut off Venezuelan supplies following Maduro's arrest and prompted Mexico to suspend crude shipments. Daily power outages exceed 10 hours, the government mandated a four-day workweek, and President Díaz-Canel invoked "Periodo Especial" survival measures in a two-hour televised address.

Colombia confronts escalating electoral violence ahead of March 8 congressional elections. The Mission of Electoral Observation identified 170 municipalities (11% of the electoral census) as high-risk for fraud and violence, with 81 at extreme risk—a 65% increase from 2022. Continued massacres and targeted killings have plagued conflict-affected regions, while 59 of 134 attacks on political and social leaders were assassinations. On February 6, an attack attributed to the ELN on Senator Jairo Castellanos' convoy in Arauca killed two bodyguards and resulted in three kidnappings. Drone warfare by armed groups has intensified, with 393 drone-based attacks recorded between April 2024 and December 2025.