Americas - South America RegionalPULSE: 07 AUG 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in South America.

• Colombia’s “total peace” at risk – Talks with the ELN remain suspended amid armed clashes with FARC dissidents, causing mass displacement, nearly 100 civilian deaths, and prompting ICRC warnings that 2025 may be the worst humanitarian year in a decade. FARC-EP offensive against the ELN in Cauca escalates conflict in the Macizo region, with child recruitment and limited state presence compounding insecurity.
• Argentina faces widespread protests – Mobilizations against President Milei’s austerity measures draw diverse sectors, while Congress debates opposition-backed funding bills. IMF releases $2 billion, signaling confidence in economic reforms.
• Brazil sees polarized demonstrations – Bolsonaro supporters demand amnesty and denounce the Supreme Court, while counter-protests oppose U.S. tariffs. Resilient trade diversification mitigates economic fallout from new U.S. duties.
• Peru unrest turns violent – Artisanal miners protest the end of REINFO, sparking lethal clashes and transport blockades; militarized protection of illegal mining tunnels underscores entrenched criminal economies.
• Ecuador’s violence surges – Guayas massacre kills 17 amid record homicide levels; Constitutional Court suspends contested security laws, triggering Noboa-led protest plans. IMF boosts support to $5 billion.
• Venezuela targeted by U.S. sanctions – Cartel de los Soles designated as a terrorist organization, implicating President Maduro in decades of cocaine trafficking; Chevron resumes limited U.S.-bound crude exports under strict conditions.
• Diplomatic rifts emerge – Colombia–Peru dispute over Santa Rosa Island sovereignty raises Amazon navigation concerns; MERCOSUR finalizes free trade pact with EFTA, expanding market access for 97% of exports.
• Health risks in Bolivia – Measles outbreak prompts nationwide school holiday extension; over one million children remain unvaccinated despite emergency immunization campaigns.