Sentinel Brief

The Asia-Pacific region confronts a convergence of security and geopolitical-focused developments in December 2025, with the India-Bangladesh diplomatic breakdown marking South Asia's most severe bilateral rupture in decades. India's closure of visa centers in Dhaka, Khulna and Rajshahi  on December 17th, following security threats and anti-India protests signals a relationship that has moved from strategic partnership to active hostility since Sheikh Hasina's August exile, creating operational risks for the 50,000+ Indians residing in Bangladesh and disrupting medical tourism, education, and trade flows that underpin regional economic integration.

Myanmar's military crossed critical thresholds in humanitarian law with its December 10 airstrike on Mrauk-U General Hospital that killed 33 people, demonstrating the junta's willingness to target medical infrastructure as resistance forces gain territory. The international community's limited response beyond statements emboldens further attacks on civilian facilities, while fighting in Chin State indicates the military's desperate attempts to hold strategic positions ahead of elections that will lack any international recognition, ensuring continued isolation and humanitarian deterioration.

The two-month closure of Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings has inflicted cumulative trade losses exceeding $4.5 billion, devastating commercial relationships and pushing Afghanistan deeper into economic isolation while forcing Pakistan to absorb severe economic costs from its security-first approach. This economic warfare between neighbors creates opportunities for India to expand its intelligence and diplomatic engagement with Kabul, potentially reshaping regional alignments as traditional partnerships fracture along new security fault lines.

Maritime tensions in the South China Sea escalated with China's December 12 water cannon attack on Filipino fishermen near Escoda Shoal, injuring multiple civilians and prompting Manila's diplomatic protests while Beijing accused the Philippines of distorting facts. This incident reflects China's increasingly aggressive enforcement of territorial claims through coast guard forces that blur lines between law enforcement and military action, raising risks of miscalculation as the Philippines strengthens US alliance ties and Washington expands freedom of navigation operations.