Sentinel Summary

This regional report presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Asia-Pacific, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in East Asia and Oceania.

Regional security in East Asia and Oceania is intact but under increasing pressures from military buildup, defense posturing, gray-zone tactics, localized border conflicts, and ongoing natural disaster recovery. 

The primary destabilizing factor in East Asia is China’s military posture in the region and stance on Taiwan.  China uses military drills to surround Taiwan and simulate naval blockades as a means of intimidating Taiwan. 

The use of gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea affects civilian and military vessels. These tactics operate under the threshold for conflict but still present a risk for maritime operations. 

Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia are a major point of contention and are a key flashpoint of conflict.  The reignition of small-scale conflict prompted the two countries to sign a new ceasefire agreement , but the situation remains volatile.