Sentinel Summary

This report provides a focused analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across the Asia-Pacific watchlist countries for the current reporting period. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

The Asia-Pacific region is contending with two intersecting crises that together represent the most complex operating environment the region has faced since the COVID-19 pandemic. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered acute energy shortages across every sub-region, from rolling blackouts in Bangladesh to fuel rationing in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines. Simultaneously, China has resumed large-scale military pressure around Taiwan and the South China Sea while US force posture in the Indo-Pacific is degraded by redeployments to the Middle East. The Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict, which resumed after the Eid al-Fitr ceasefire lapsed on March 23, compounds the instability picture for South Asia and threatens to metastasize through refugee flows and militant network expansion.

Key Regional Concerns

Energy Crisis Reaches Critical Thresholds Across the Region

The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 24, citing fuel reserves of approximately 45 days. Bangladesh has imposed five-hour rolling blackouts and closed universities. Sri Lanka expanded its QR code-based fuel rationing on March 15, increasing weekly allocations to 25 litres for car owners. Myanmar introduced barcode-controlled fuel purchases effective March 24, limiting motorists to one or two fills per week. Multiple governments, including South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan, are reverting to coal-fired power generation to offset LNG shortfalls.

China Escalates Military Activity Around Taiwan and in the South China Sea

The People's Liberation Army resumed large-scale air force incursions near Taiwan beginning March 14-15, according to Reuters, with Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reporting increased naval vessel detections through March 23. China commenced live-fire exercises in the South China Sea from March 24 to 27. Separately, Vietnam formally protested Chinese dredging operations at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, where the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative's satellite analysis suggests Beijing is constructing what could become its largest military installation in the disputed waters.

Afghanistan-Pakistan War Resumes After Eid Ceasefire Expires

The Eid al-Fitr ceasefire, brokered by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, expired on March 23. Within 24 hours, Afghan officials reported approximately 85 Pakistani artillery shells struck residential areas in Kunar province. The UN documented at least 289 civilian casualties in Afghanistan since late February, including 76 deaths. The March 16 Pakistani airstrike on Kabul's Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital remains the deadliest single incident, with UNAMA confirming 143 killed and 119 wounded. Pakistan simultaneously positions itself as mediator in US-Iran talks, with Islamabad proposed as a venue for face-to-face negotiations.

Japan Deploys Extended-Range Missiles, Deepens Indo-Pacific Partnerships

Japan's upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles, with a range extended from 200 km to approximately 1,000 km, are scheduled for deployment at Camp Kengun by the end of March, one year ahead of the original schedule. Japan's Defense Ministry has also scheduled the deployment of a ground-launched Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile at Camp Fuji on March 31. Japan's draft 2026 Diplomatic Bluebook downgrades China from "one of the most important bilateral relations" to "an important neighboring country." Japanese combat forces will participate in the April-May Balikatan exercises with the Philippines and the US for the first time.

Myanmar Junta Transitions Toward Presidential Selection Amid Civil War

Myanmar's Pyidaungsu Hluttaw announced on March 20 that it will begin vetting presidential candidates on March 30, with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing widely expected to become president. The transition follows military-controlled elections held in December 2025 and January 2026, which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party won. The junta claimed over 500 opposition fighters surrendered in Mandalay on March 19, a claim disputed by the Mandalay People's Defence Force as a propaganda exercise.