Asia-Pacific - South Asia RegionalPULSE: 20 MAY 2025

Report Summary

• Bangladesh bans the Awami League, triggering heightened political risk. The use of anti-terror laws against the country’s historic ruling party raises serious governance and stability concerns, with growing risks of unrest, polarization, and diplomatic fallout.
• Nepal’s post-Pahalgam divergence from India’s counterterrorism stance signals a shift toward greater alignment with China’s regional posture. This strategic recalibration risks disrupting India-Nepal cooperation on security and border management.
• Sri Lanka faces renewed protest pressure amid ongoing economic hardship and austerity measures tied to IMF reform conditions. Student demonstrations and union strikes point to fragile social cohesion and stalled political consensus-building.
• Bhutan hosts the first-ever State Visit of the King of Thailand, reinforcing bilateral ties and exemplifying a successful model of soft-power diplomacy. Development cooperation and cultural exchange efforts between the two monarchies offer regional stabilization potential.
• India outlines a new regional security doctrine post-Pahalgam, emphasizing decisive retaliation and non-tolerance for terror sponsorship. This assertive posture redefines future engagement expectations for neighbors and international actors.
• Regional risk landscape trends toward fragmentation, with strategic realignments, political crackdowns, and weakening multilateralism shaping an increasingly complex operating environment over the next 90 days.