BLUF

A military faction seized Benin's state television early on December 7 and declared President Patrice Talon removed from office. Government officials state that Talon is safe and loyalist forces are regaining control, but this remains an active and fluid situation. On-the-ground circumstances should be expected to evolve throughout the coming hours and days. Independent verification of competing claims is limited, and the true disposition of military forces across the country is not yet clear.

Updated Developments

Contrary to multiple reports about the arrests of the coupists,  a video of the main leader, Colonel Pascal Tigri, has resurfaced on X within the last hour, calling for public support and urging France not to intervene. However, we cannot claim the authenticity of the video at the time of writing.  But what remains most probable is that the coup has been foiled, although the whereabouts of President Talon is still not known, nor has he issued any statement on the situation.

Situation Overview

Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri led an armed assault on President Talon's residence near Camp Guézo in Cotonou at dawn, then seized the state broadcaster ORTB. Appearing in military fatigues alongside several soldiers, Tigri announced the formation of a "Military Committee for Refoundation" and declared the constitution suspended, all political institutions dissolved, and borders closed.

The broadcast lasted only minutes before the signal was cut. No subsequent communication from the coup plotters has been confirmed as of this reporting. Foreign Minister Olushegun Adjadi Bakari told Reuters that "a large part of the army is still loyalist and we are taking over the situation." The presidency confirmed Talon and his family are secure, though their location has not been disclosed.

The French Embassy reported gunfire at Camp Guézo and advised citizens to shelter in place. Street-level reporting from Cotonou describes the atmosphere as tense but not locked down, with civilian traffic still moving and police deploying at key intersections and around the port.

Preliminary Assessment

Several indicators suggest the coup attempt may be struggling to gain momentum, though it is too early to characterize this as a failed effort, despite numerous recent reporting indicating this as of the date/time of this original report

Thus far, the plotters achieved only a single visible objective. They took the television station, made their announcement, and then lost it. They do not appear to have captured President Talon, and the government has retained its ability to communicate with international media. Successful coups typically require simultaneous control of multiple critical nodes, and available reporting suggests the CMR has not achieved this.

Hours after Tigri's broadcast, no senior military officers have publicly announced support for the coup, no additional units have visibly mobilized on behalf of the CMR, and the defense establishment appears to be responding to the situation as a security threat rather than a change of government. The absence of visible defections is notable, though not conclusive.

However, significant caution is warranted. The government has obvious incentive to project control and stability even if the internal situation is more contested than officials are acknowledging publicly. Tigri's current status and location remain unknown. We have no independent verification of conditions at military installations outside Cotonou, and the true extent of sympathy for the coup within the armed forces cannot be assessed from available reporting.

Coups can appear to be failing and then succeed, or appear contained and then metastasize, depending on factors that are often invisible until they manifest.The situation should be treated as active and unresolved until substantially more clarity emerges.

Key Actors

President Patrice Talon is reported safe by government officials. The businessman who has governed since 2016 was scheduled to leave office in April 2026 after publicly declining to seek an unconstitutional third term. His designated successor, former Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, was nominated by the ruling coalition in August.

Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri led the coup attempt. Little is publicly known about his background, unit command, or prior political involvement. His current whereabouts have not been confirmed, and no arrest has been announced.

Foreign Minister Olushegun Adjadi Bakari has served as the government's primary international spokesperson during the crisis.

Political Context

This did not happen in a vacuum. Benin, once considered a model of democratic stability in West Africa, has experienced significant political tensions under Talon's administration.

In October, the Electoral Commission rejected the candidacy of the main opposition party's presidential nominee on procedural grounds that critics called politically motivated. In November, the National Assembly approved constitutional changes extending presidential terms from five to seven years and creating a partially appointed Senate. Several prominent opposition figures, including former presidential candidates, are serving lengthy prison sentences on charges that international observers have questioned.

Former ECOWAS communications director Adama Gaye told Al Jazeera the coup attempt "does not come as a surprise" given these accumulated grievances. Regardless of how this particular situation resolves, the underlying instability it reflects will persist.

Regional Implications

The attempt comes just eleven days after Guinea-Bissau's military seized power on November 26, continuing a pattern of coups and coup attempts that has reshaped West African politics since 2020. Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, and Gabon have all experienced successful military takeovers in recent years. Three of those countries have withdrawn from ECOWAS entirely.

ECOWAS has not yet issued a formal statement on Benin, but the bloc suspended Guinea-Bissau within days of its coup and condemned it "in the strongest terms." A similar posture is expected depending on how events in Benin develop. The African Union and Western governments will likely follow ECOWAS's lead.

Regional Context: Africa's Coup Wave

Military coups have defined much of African political history since independence. Of roughly 242 successful coups globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the largest share with at least 106, plus over 100 failed attempts. Forty-five of the continent's fifty-four nations have experienced at least one.

The post-independence decades were particularly volatile, reflecting fragile institutions inherited from colonial rule, Cold War competition, and commodity-dependent economies. A period of relative stability emerged in the 2000s as democratic transitions became more common and regional bodies developed mechanisms to discourage unconstitutional takeovers. Between 2014 and 2020, West Africa saw no successful coups.

That stability broke in August 2020 when Malian soldiers overthrew President Keïta. The subsequent "coup wave" has toppled governments in Guinea (2021), Chad (2021), Burkina Faso (twice in 2022), Niger (2023), Gabon (2023), and most recently Guinea-Bissau (November 2025). Common drivers include security failures against jihadist insurgencies, constitutional manipulation by incumbents, resentment of French influence, and a contagion effect where each successful coup emboldens officers elsewhere.

Regional responses have failed to reverse any takeover once consolidated. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrew from ECOWAS entirely in January 2025, forming the Alliance of Sahel States and pivoting toward Russia. Benin, once considered a democratic success story, demonstrates that even states with decades of civilian governance remain vulnerable when political tensions accumulate unchecked.

Security Guidance

Personnel in Benin should shelter in place and avoid all nonessential movement until the situation clarifies. The area around Camp Guézo and the presidential residence should be avoided entirely. Monitor local news sources and embassy communications for updates on curfews, border status, and airport operations.

The coup plotters announced border closures, but this has not been independently verified and may not reflect actual conditions. Benin's northern border with Niger has been closed since 2023 following Niger's coup. No confirmed airport closures or flight cancellations have been reported for Cotonou Cadjehoun International Airport as of this writing, but this could change with little warning.

Organizations with staff in Benin should establish contact, confirm welfare, and review contingency plans. Even if the immediate situation stabilizes, the potential for secondary instability, including protests, military repositioning, or additional factional moves, should be anticipated in the coming days.

Intelligence Gaps

Several critical questions remain unanswered, and these gaps significantly limit confidence in any near-term assessment.

Tigri's current status, whether arrested, in hiding, or still commanding forces, is unknown. The true extent of military sympathy for the coup beyond the group that executed the television seizure cannot be assessed. Whether the CMR coordinated with external actors or other internal factions has not been addressed in reporting. The actual status of borders, the airport, and key infrastructure remains unverified beyond competing claims. Talon's specific location has not been disclosed.

Until these gaps are addressed, assessments of the coup's success or failure should be treated as provisional.

Outlook

Based on current reporting, the most likely near-term trajectory is that the government consolidates control and the coup attempt is declared failed. However, this assessment carries meaningful uncertainty. Situations of this nature can shift rapidly based on factors that are not visible in open-source reporting, including private negotiations, military unit positioning, and the calculations of officers who have not yet committed to either side.

Even if this particular attempt is suppressed, the political conditions that contributed to it remain unresolved. The opposition remains marginalized, key figures remain imprisoned, and the April 2026 election will proceed with limited competition. These dynamics create ongoing vulnerability to future instability.

This situation remains active. Circumstances on the ground should be expected to evolve. Updates will follow as verified information becomes available.

Sources

This report draws on contemporaneous reporting from the following outlets, cross-referenced where possible. Given the rapidly evolving nature of events, details are subject to change as additional information emerges.

• Reuters (government and military statements, Minister Bakari interview)
• Agence France-Presse (street-level reporting, presidency confirmation)
• Al Jazeera (live coverage, Adama Gaye interview, regional context)
• France 24 (French Embassy statement, timeline details)
• Bloomberg (financial and political background)
• Associated Press (wire reporting on coup announcement)
• French Embassy in Benin (X/Twitter statement on gunfire)
• Diplomatic sources
• Regional Riley Risk GSAT members

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