Key Findings

• Voter Turnout: Despite an overall increase in the number of registered voters from 7.2 million voters in 2018 to 8.2 million in 2025, voter turnout dropped from the average 67% observed in previous elections to 58%. 
• Contested legitimacy: Issa Tchiroma Bakary, the Project C coalition, and several other opposition presidential candidates have outrightly refused to recognise Paul Biya’s victory, while less than 10 foreign governments have formally congratulated President Biya on his reelection. 
• Electoral Controversy: President Biya’s landslide victory in the conflict-affected Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions have raised serious concerns about electoral malpractice. President Biya scored 86% and 68%, respectively in these two regions, recording more than 400,000 votes according to official results from the Constitutional Council.   
• Growing State Repression: The government through the Ministry of Territorial Administration, regional, and local administrative officials, notably governors, senior divisional officers, and divisional officers have banned all forms of protests. Heavy crackdown on protesters, including the firing of live bullets and water cannons, while  key opposition figures under the Project C coalition have been arbitrarily detained. 
• International Response: The United Nations, European Union, African Union, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, as well as several European diplomatic missions and Canada, have all called for a restraint on the government crackdown on protesters. 
• Ethnic Tensions: Rising ethnic tensions fuelled by pro and anti-Biya social media influencers continue to rise. Comments on pro-Biya social media influencers, notably on Facebook often contain hate words such as “talibans”, while “Amba, les Bulu’s, les Ekangs” is frequently used by anti-Biya influencers. 
• Rising Sympathy for  Targeted Killings of Pro-Biya Sympathizers: According to the General Manager for the state broadcaster, Cameroon Radio and Television (CRTV), CRTV personnel are the target of public violence. In the Northwest region, a local member of parliament for the incumbent CPDM party, and a regional delegate were brutally assassinated by Anglophone separatists. 
• Waning Democratic Preference: Although 50% of Cameroonians still prefer democracy as the best form of government, over 66% support a military coup d’etat. This suggests a growing popularity for coups in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has seen a resurgence in coup activities within the last 5 years.
• Consensus: Lack of consensus within the leading opposition parties makes it easier for the government to maintain control. This is in addition to the  Anglophone - Francophone divide.   
• Instability and regional implications: In addition to the country’s fight against the Boko Haram insurgency in the Far North region, and Anglophone separatist fighters in the Northwest and Southwest regions, rising post-electoral violence across major cities in the West, Littoral, North, and Adamaoua regions might impact the regional peace and security within the Lake Chad Basin.

Summary

The presidential elections held in Cameroon on October 12, 2025, and officially confirmed by the Constitutional Council on October 27, marked a worrying turn in the country's political course. The announcement of Paul Biya's victory extended his tenure to an eighth consecutive term, reaffirming his status as the world's oldest head of state and one of the longest-serving leaders globally. In power since 1982, Biya has ruled Cameroon for over 43 years, a tenure that has profoundly shaped the nation's political and institutional landscape.

His confirmation of victory, however, has sparked widespread unrest and mass protests across the country, as opposition parties and civil society groups have denounced the election as fraudulent and “stolen.” Demonstrations have erupted in major cities such as Yaoundé, Douala, and Garoua, with reports of violent clashes and repression by security forces.

This situation has plunged the central African nation into a state of heightened instability, raising concerns about its political stability and future governance. The prospect of a 90-year-old president remaining in office until he is nearly 100, coupled with intensifying social unrest, underscores the fragility of Cameroon's democratic institutions and the uncertainty of its political future.

The post-election crisis unfolds against compounding security threats—including the Boko Haram insurgency in the north, humanitarian pressures from Central African refugees in the east, and the Anglophone separatist conflict in the northwest and southwest. These overlapping challenges strain national resources, exacerbate regional marginalization, and complicate operational continuity for humanitarian and development programs. The 15-day delay in confirming results, while technically legal, further eroded public trust and amplified perceptions of manipulation.

This report provides background context on Cameroon's political landscape, analyzes immediate and medium-term risks from the contested election, and assesses potential scenarios shaping the country's trajectory in coming months.