Key Findings

• May 28, 2025: tensions escalated near the Temple of Preah Vihear after a Cambodian soldier was killed in an exchange of fire with Thai troops around the Chong Bok area. The incident triggered a rapid military buildup along the disputed border, transforming a localized confrontation into a broader security crisis.
• Mid-June 2025 — Cambodia intensified pressure on Thailand by suspending imports of Thai fruit, vegetables, and fuel and cutting Thai television and radio broadcasts. Thailand retaliated by restricting power and internet services to several Cambodian border areas and tightening cross-border controls, disrupting livelihoods and trade for thousands of residents.
• July 2025 — A leaked June 15 phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian leader Hun Sen triggered political turmoil in Bangkok. Critics accused Shinawatra of being overly deferential, leading to her suspension from office amid growing domestic unrest.
• July 23–24, 2025 — The situation deteriorated after Thai soldiers triggered a landmine on July 23. The following day, intense clashes erupted at more than a dozen locations along the border. Cambodia deployed BM-21 rocket launchers, while Thailand conducted airstrikes with F-16 fighter jets, marking a shift from sporadic skirmishes to large-scale armed conflict.
• July 24–25, 2025 — Within 48 hours, dozens of casualties were reported on both sides, and over 200,000 civilians were displaced. Entire villages near the conflict zone were abandoned, creating a humanitarian crisis as relief agencies struggled to access affected areas.
  • Human rights organizations accused Thailand of using cluster munitions, banned under international law.
  • Cambodia warned that UNESCO World Heritage sites, including the Temple of Preah Vihear, were at risk of irreparable damage from ongoing hostilities.
• July 28, 2025 — Diplomatic relations collapsed as both countries expelled ambassadors and suspended high-level communication. ASEAN mediated a ceasefire agreement in Kuala Lumpur, ending active hostilities but leaving core disputes unresolved.
• Late July – Early August 2025 — Despite the ceasefire, sporadic violations persisted, including exchanges of fire and unauthorized troop movements. The absence of international monitoring mechanisms left the security environment fragile and unpredictable.
• July 14, 2025 — Conscription Announcement — Before the peak of hostilities, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet announced the reinstatement of mandatory military conscription beginning in 2026, signaling Phnom Penh’s preparation for a prolonged confrontation.
• August 19, 2025 — Nearly 400,000 Cambodian migrant workers returned home from Thailand to avoid being caught in the conflict. The sudden exodus caused severe labor shortages across Thai construction, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors, prompting Bangkok to seek replacement workers from Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

Summary

The ongoing confrontation between Thailand and Cambodia represents the most serious escalation in bilateral relations in over a decade. The crisis began on May 28, 2025, when a Cambodian soldier was killed during an exchange of fire near the Temple of Preah Vihear, triggering a rapid military buildup along the disputed border. What began as a localized security incident has since evolved into a multidimensional crisis, encompassing military escalation, political instability, economic disruption, and regional security concerns.

By late July, hostilities intensified sharply, with reports of artillery strikes, air operations, and allegations of banned weapons use. More than 200,000 civilians have been displaced, raising urgent humanitarian concerns and prompting questions over the potential for a broader conflict. ASEAN has attempted to mediate, with limited success, as diplomatic efforts continue amid widespread instability.

The conflict’s impact extends beyond the immediate border area. Nearly 400,000 Cambodian migrant workers have returned home from Thailand, straining Cambodia’s labor market while creating significant workforce shortages across Thai industries. Meanwhile, Cambodia’s announcement to reinstate mandatory military conscription from 2026 underscores Phnom Penh’s preparations for a prolonged confrontation.

The situation is no longer a simple territorial dispute; it now involves interconnected political, economic, and security dimensions with implications reaching beyond Southeast Asia. Regional stakeholders — from Bangkok to Brussels — are closely monitoring developments as the crisis threatens to reshape stability dynamics across the region.