Executive Summary

This report provides a consolidated assessment of the evolving geopolitical, security, and socioeconomic environment across Europe. The reporting period highlights several pressure points with risks emerging from parallel trends.

Geopolitical and Security Environment

The EU has escalated its response to Iran by adopting new sanctions over human-rights violations and military support to Russia, and by formally designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia continue without progress toward a ceasefire, while heavy fighting, missile and drone strikes, and rising casualties persist as the war nears its fourth year.

Regional diplomatic tensions remain elevated. Croatia has rejected the U.S.-proposed “Board of Peace,” while Hungary and Ukraine exchanged diplomatic protests over alleged election interference. The United Kingdom has signalled a pragmatic shift by engaging China on trade and economic cooperation.

Security, Stability, and Internal Pressures

European authorities continue to address diverse security challenges. Denmark and the United States have opened talks to de-escalate tensions over Greenland. France is investigating a suspected Russian “shadow fleet” tanker in Marseille, highlighting ongoing sanctions-evasion concerns. Law enforcement has achieved major successes against organised crime, including large drug seizures, though criminal networks remain adaptive. Domestic security incidents, including a knife attack in Antwerp and sustained protests in Serbia, underline persistent public-order risks.

Political and Socioeconomic Conditions

Political instability persists in parts of Europe, notably Bulgaria, which is heading toward another snap election. The EU has approved SAFE defence financing, granting Italy and other member states access to significant loans to strengthen defence capabilities. Labour unrest and economic pressure continue to disrupt daily life, with rail strikes in Belgium, repeated staff strikes at the Louvre in France, and truck-driver blockades at EU borders involving Western Balkan states. In the United Kingdom, elevated inflation and weak growth complicate economic policy decisions.