Executive Summary

This report provides a consolidated assessment of the evolving geopolitical, security, and socioeconomic environment across the Europe-Eurasia region.

Ukraine-Russia peace talks entered a third round in Geneva on February 17-18 without a breakthrough, though both sides confirmed progress on military-track issues including ceasefire implementation and prisoner exchanges. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces reclaimed 201 square kilometers between February 11-15, the largest weekly territorial gain since June 2023, with analysts attributing the advance partly to SpaceX's disruption of Russian Starlink terminals. Russia's economy is under growing strain, with oil and gas revenues falling to 393 billion rubles in January 2026, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, and food inflation driving public frustration as monthly grocery bills rose over 22%.

The South Caucasus is undergoing a rapid geopolitical realignment following the August 2025 U.S.-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance conducted the first-ever VP visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan on February 9-10, signing a civil nuclear agreement worth up to $9 billion with Yerevan and a strategic partnership covering defense and energy with Baku. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 43-kilometer corridor through southern Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, is advancing as a key node on the Trans-Caspian trade route, directly challenging Russian and Iranian influence in the region.