Europe-Eurasia - Eurasia RegionalPULSE: 10 JUL 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe-Eurasia, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Eurasia.

• Armenia and Georgia are undergoing accelerated democratic backsliding, with arrests of clergy and opposition figures, restrictive legislation, and growing tensions with Russia undermining institutional stability.
• In Armenia, accusations of a coup plot involving church leaders and Russian actors reflect deeper internal fractures and a volatile pivot westward, likely to provoke further unrest.
• Azerbaijan and Russia have entered a cycle of retaliatory detentions, escalating diplomatic hostility and increasing risks for cross-border operations and foreign nationals.
• Kazakhstan faces pressure from both Russia and the U.S., with accusations of drone facilitation on one side and steep tariffs on the other, amplifying trade and diplomatic uncertainty.
• Russia’s expanded use of gold, netting, and cryptocurrency for cross-border payments may complicate compliance frameworks for regional and international businesses operating in Eurasia.
• Uzbekistan’s full membership in the BRICS New Development Bank boosts its financial reach, while its leadership in a new green energy corridor highlights growing infrastructure ambition.
• Tajikistan is positioning itself as a regional irrigation and logistics hub, but border insecurity—highlighted by armed clashes with Afghan smugglers—poses long-term security concerns.
• The July launch of the ECO 2035 roadmap signals deepening regional cooperation in trade, energy, and connectivity among Central and West Asian countries.
• Turkey is facilitating a historic PKK disarmament process and contributing to regional stability, although large-scale wildfires have exposed emergency response vulnerabilities.
• Across Eurasia, growing divergence is evident: while the South Caucasus slides into repression and confrontation, Central Asia is strengthening its resilience through multilateralism and economic modernization.