Europe-Eurasia - Europe RegionalPULSE: 01 OCT 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe-Eurasia, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Europe.

• Moldova’s pro-European path reaffirmed: The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured 50.1% in parliamentary elections despite extensive Russian cyberattacks and disinformation. While the victory consolidates EU alignment, it risks provoking renewed unrest as pro-Russian blocs contest results.
• Escalating hybrid threats from Russia: Multiple NATO members, including Poland, Romania, Estonia, Finland, and Denmark, reported drone and fighter jet incursions. Poland and Denmark invoked Article 4, prompting NATO to launch Operation Eastern Sentry—a major step in deterrence and defense.
• NATO resilience tested: Poland’s direct engagement with Russian drones marked the first active NATO response on allied soil. Ukraine intensified reciprocal strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, underscoring the conflict’s widening footprint and the importance of alliance coordination.
• Political volatility in Western Europe: France’s Prime Minister resigned amid mass austerity protests, fueling instability and undermining EU cohesion. The UK and France formally recognized Palestine, spurring domestic unrest and diverging approaches within Europe.
• Growing migration strains: Germany extended border controls, Greece adopted harsher penalties for rejected asylum seekers, and Baltic states reinforced borders with Belarus. Divergent policies among EU members reveal widening fractures on migration and asylum.
• European unity under pressure: Disagreements persist on support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and recognition of Palestine. These divisions weaken Europe’s geopolitical leverage and threaten coordinated responses to security and economic crises.
• Economic uncertainty deepens: The Bank of England cut rates to 4% amid inflationary pressures and declining employment, while Germany tightened border regimes to address migration concerns. Extreme weather costs (€43 billion) further strain fiscal resources across Mediterranean states.
• Stability factors offer partial balance: Expanded EUFOR Quick Response drills, U.S. security assurances to Poland, and peace facilitation efforts by Norway and Switzerland provide counterweights to instability. Germany and Poland also advanced energy reforms aimed at resilience and sustainability.