Europe-Eurasia - Europe RegionalPULSE: 19 AUG 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe-Eurasia, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Europe.

• Karol Nawrocki was sworn in as Poland’s new president, signaling potential policy gridlock with pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk and rising uncertainty over judicial reforms, migration, and EU integration.
• Ukraine restored independence to NABU and SAP, securing EU and IMF support, but prospects for peace remain limited amid stalled negotiations and intensified Russian drone and missile attacks.
• The EU sanctioned seven individuals and three entities for destabilizing Moldova’s democracy, highlighting growing risks of disinformation and Russian influence operations in Eastern Europe.
• Despite French objections, EU officials expect to finalize the EU-Mercosur trade agreement by December 2025, signaling expanded trade opportunities despite ongoing internal divisions.
• Anti-government protests in Serbia escalated into violent clashes, with heightened security crackdowns and mobility disruptions expected in Belgrade and Novi Sad.
• Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, including record-breaking drone strikes in Ukraine and coordinated disinformation campaigns, elevate security concerns along NATO’s eastern flank.
• Violent riots in Limoges highlight localized gang-related security challenges in France, prompting heavier policing measures in urban hotspots.
• Germany’s failed offshore wind tenders reflect investor hesitancy driven by rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and volatile electricity pricing, prompting likely policy revisions.
• Portugal announced a €400M investment to modernize its electricity grid and expand battery storage, aiming to enhance energy resilience following April’s blackout.
• Finland’s prosecution of a Russian-linked tanker crew for damaging undersea cables underscores growing vulnerabilities to maritime infrastructure and drives stronger EU-NATO coordination.
• Record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires in Portugal triggered nationwide red alerts, straining emergency services and threatening tourism, agriculture, and logistics.