Europe-Eurasia - Europe RegionalPULSE: 27 MAY 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe-Eurasia, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Europe.

• Political fragmentation continues to reshape Europe’s electoral landscape, with recent elections in the UK and Portugal showing a marked decline in support for traditional parties and rising influence of populist and fringe movements. The far-right Chega nearly equaled Portugal’s Socialists in vote share, while Reform UK surged in English local elections.
• Germany’s leadership transition to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, though successful in a second-round vote, revealed early coalition fragility and triggered financial market concerns. 
• Romania’s election of pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan provides short-term political stability, reinforcing the country's alignment with NATO and EU institutions. However, the strong first-round performance of far-right challenger Simion highlights persistent domestic polarization.
• Security risks from hybrid and cyber threats are intensifying, with Finland reinforcing its border with Russia, Poland intercepting suspected sabotage attempts, and the Netherlands passing expanded anti-espionage laws amid fears of Chinese and Russian cyber activities.
• France and Spain exposed vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, with France responding to suspected sabotage on its southern grid and Spain investigating unexplained grid oscillations linked to a historic blackout affecting 55 million people.
• Germany formalized its first post-WWII permanent military deployment abroad, with the launch of Brigade Lithuania, solidifying its NATO commitment and signaling a historic shift in Berlin’s defense posture.
• Hungary proposed sweeping legislation to suppress foreign-funded organizations, drawing criticism for emulating Russia's “foreign agents” law and threatening the operational space of NGOs and independent media.
• Norway forecast record oil and gas investments in 2025, reaching NOK 269.1 billion (~$26.6 billion), reaffirming its role as a cornerstone of Western Europe’s energy resilience amid global transition pressures.
• Environmental resource competition is emerging as a new geopolitical flashpoint, with Switzerland and France finalizing a water-sharing agreement over Lake Geneva, as future nuclear energy demands collide with climate-driven water scarcity projections.