Report Summary

This report presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe and Eurasia, with an emphasis on significant developments in Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and the Caucasus region.

Tensions at the eastern front of Europe are rising, showcased by the indefinite closure of the border by Finland and reported attacks on Polish border guards by Belarusian servicemen. The fear of a potential Russian attack becomes evident through the plans of several countries to leave the Ottawa convention that bans antipersonnel landmines, a measure that was perceived as unthinkable before the war in Ukraine. Countries that announced such plans include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and – most recently – Finland.

While the Dutch military intelligence agency (MIVD) reported an increase in Russian hybrid attacks targeting the Netherlands and other countries, the SECURE International Summit in Poland discussed EU strategies against cyber threats. The peace negotiations for Ukraine might enter their final stages as the U.S. announced a last attempt with plans to cede Crimea to Russia and freeze the current frontline. President Trump harshly criticized his Ukrainian counterpart again, while not publicly demanding concessions from Russia. Strategically, these dynamics demand enhanced regional cooperation and improved lobbying with the Trump administration to address security threats and political instability.