Europe-Eurasia RegionalPULSE: 28 FEB 2025
Geopolitical & Security Analysis Report
Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 28 FEB 2025
Report Focus Location: Europe-Eurasia
Authors: AGC, ATG, MA
Contributors: GSAT
GSAT Lead: MF
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Report Summary
This report presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe and Eurasia, with an emphasis on significant developments in Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and the Caucasus region.
The Europe-Eurasia region struggles to find a common policy towards the new U.S. administration. President Trump’s decision to initiate direct peace negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, without the involvement of Ukraine or Europe, along with Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, suggest a shift in geopolitical priorities, raising concerns about Europe's role in the strategic calculations of the U.S., Russia, and China. French President Macron has taken the lead in bringing those countries with relatively strong armed forces and economies together and defining a path forward. The shock in Europe will most likely lead to increased defense spending and pressure on state budgets. German Chancellor-elect Merz is expected to strengthen Germany's alignment with France and the UK by increasing support for Ukraine and advocating for Europe's inclusion in peace negotiations with Russia and Ukraine.
In Eurasia, countries try to navigate the uncertain geopolitical situation by finding a balance between ties with Russia and Europe. Armenia is intensifying cooperation with the EU to boost trade, security, and improve human rights. Azerbaijan has emerged as a key regional player, and has openly expressed concerns regarding Russia’s role in the downing of a plane in December 2024, as well as its alleged influence on the country's media. Belarus, on the other hand, is planning joint military drills with Russia in September 2025, while also sending signs of intended relaxation towards the U.S. and Europe.
