Executive Summary

Tropical Storm Basyang is approaching eastern Mindanao with sustained winds of 65-75 km/h according to PAGASA's latest bulletins. While wind speeds appear modest, the primary threat stems from torrential rainfall forecasts of 100-200mm across Caraga and Northern Mindanao regions. This storm arrives as the Philippines manages three simultaneous disasters that significantly amplify vulnerability: a massive fire in Bongao, Tawi-Tawi that destroyed approximately 1,000 homes and displaced 5,000 people on February 3, ongoing Mayon Volcano eruption now in its 29th consecutive day with 4,106 evacuees, and fatal flooding in Negros Occidental on February 1 that killed one person and forced 5,000 evacuations.  Additionally, as of early February 2026, Mount Kanlaon remains under a state of heightened unrest, with PHIVOLCS maintaining strict monitoring following intense explosive activity in late 2025.  The volcano continues to exhibit degassing, minor ash emissions, and elevated seismic activity, frequently threatening nearby communities with ashfall and pyroclastic flows, keeping it one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines. 

The convergence creates conditions for cascading failures affecting an estimated 20,000-50,000 additional people beyond those already displaced. Negros Island faces particularly acute risk, having experienced fatal flooding just 96 hours before Basyang's projected second landfall there Friday afternoon, while Kanlaon Volcano shows increased unrest with Alert Level 2 maintained. Organizations with operations across Mindanao and the Visayas should prepare for 72-96 hour disruptions to communications, power, and ground transportation.

Riley Risk maintains on-the-ground operational capability in the Philippines and can provide immediate support to organizations requiring assistance during this compound disaster scenario. Contact your CountryACCESS account manager or set up a call with our team today.

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