FLASH Report: Saudi-UAE Rupture Over Yemen
Saudi Airstrikes on UAE-Backed Separatists Fracture Gulf Alliance, Threaten Yemen Partition
Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 02 JAN 2026
Report Focus Location: MENA
Authors: GSAT, NA
Contributors: GSAT, NA
GSAT Lead: MF
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Sentinel Summary
A major diplomatic and military crisis between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen has escalated into active ground combat. On January 2, fighting erupted in Hadramaut province between Saudi-backed government forces and UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists along the Saudi border. This follows Saudi airstrikes on December 26 and 30, 2025 targeting STC forces and weapons shipments, and a 24-hour ultimatum for UAE military withdrawal, which the UAE agreed to execute on December 31.
The crisis has crossed a critical threshold. Saudi Ambassador Mohammed Al-Jaber revealed that STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi personally blocked a Saudi diplomatic delegation from landing at Aden airport on January 1, demonstrating the STC's rejection of Saudi mediation efforts. On January 2, Hadramaut's Saudi-backed governor launched military operations to reclaim bases from the STC, with the STC accusing Saudi Arabia of bombing its forces near the border. Aden airport remains closed to most commercial traffic.
This rupture threatens regional stability, maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and creates immediate operational risks for organizations with personnel, assets, or supply chains in Yemen and the broader Gulf region.
IMMEDIATE THREAT: Active ground combat in Hadramaut, potential for expanded military operations, territorial fragmentation of Yemen, disruption to maritime trade routes, and instability across the Arabian Peninsula.
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Nathan Ackerman is Managing Director of Riley Risk, specializing in complex geopolitical threats. A published author in The Guardian, Devex, and IPSB with military and intelligence expertise, he founded RileySENTINEL for actionable security insights.
GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
Dr. Marko Filijovic is a Special Advisor for Riley Risk with expertise in geopolitical risk, security intelligence, artic defense and threat analysis. He holds a PhD in Security Studies from the University Of Beograd.
