NOTICE

This FlashREPORT provides a preliminary overview of the ongoing 2024 United States Presidential Election. Given the dynamic nature of the situation and ongoing developments, this report serves as an initial situational update to inform organizational security stakeholders of the current status and the possible immediate impacts.  Stakeholders should review this report to identify any operational modifications that might be required due to current and anticipated risk exposure to the current project's operational profile and coordinate any prudent actions with security management stakeholders.

PROACTIVE GUIDANCE 

Organizational security stakeholders are advised to continue monitoring the situation and to coordinate closely with their assigned Riley Risk advisory services team leads for ongoing updates and detailed analysis. Stakeholders should assess the need for operational modifications in light of the current and anticipated risks and collaborate with security management to implement prudent actions. This FLASH report is not a substitute for in-depth analysis; it is intended to facilitate rapid understanding and initial response planning.

ACTION ITEMS

The current post-election environment in the United States is characterized by heightened security concerns and potential for civil unrest. Organizations with operations or personnel in the U.S. should remain vigilant, stay informed through reliable sources, and be prepared to implement contingency plans as the situation evolves.

Monitor Security Developments: Continuously track updates from U.S. federal and state authorities regarding election-related security incidents.

Assess Travel Plans: Reevaluate travel itineraries to the United States, particularly to major cities and known protest areas, due to potential civil unrest.

Enhance Facility Security: Strengthen security protocols at U.S.-based facilities, especially in locations with heightened tensions or recent incidents.

Communicate with Personnel: Advise staff in the U.S. to remain vigilant, avoid large gatherings, and adhere to local law enforcement directives.

Monitor Indicators: Ensure that crisis response indicators are current and adaptable to rapidly changing situations. 

SITUATION SUMMARY 

The latest news on the United States presidential campaign, as of November 6, 2024, highlights several key developments:

• Donald Trump has been projected to win the 2024 US presidential election with 277 electoral votes, marking a return to the White House. Trump promised to help America heal and emphasized reducing debt and taxes.
• Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has not yet conceded and is holding back her election night speech as votes are still being counted. Trump leads with 266 electoral votes compared to Harris's 195, with 270 needed to win.
• Trump's victory speech celebrated a political victory and an unprecedented mandate, while Harris's campaign remains hopeful for a turnaround as more votes come in.
• Elon Musk supported Trump's campaign with a $120 million donation and is expected to lead a government committee to improve efficiency.
• The Republican Party is projected to regain control of the Senate, flipping two seats and overturning a narrow Democratic majority.

These developments underscore the high stakes and intense competition of the 2024 presidential race, with significant implications for US politics and governance.

BACKGROUND 

2016 Election Interference: The U.S. intelligence community concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 election through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Further reports regarding the recently ongoing election process are yet to be released, however there remains a high probability of similar threats to the U.S. Election process. 

2020 Election Security: The 2020 election saw increased security measures, yet was still subject to widespread claims of fraud, leading to the January 6 Capitol riot. At this point, this appears to be a significant concern to monitor, with limited indications of repeat activities, rather a higher degree of probability for civil unrest, protests and other activities in select locations.  

Recent Threats: Leading up to the 2024 election, there have been multiple reports of cyber threats and physical security incidents targeting election infrastructure. Ongoing investigations into the reported hacking of campaign devices; details remain limited.

Information Gaps: 

• Extent of Foreign Interference: While foreign involvement is suspected in certain threats, comprehensive assessments are pending.
• Scope of Civil Unrest: Uncertainty regarding the duration and spread of potential protests or violent incidents. Active monitoring for select locations is advised. 

CONTEXT

Immediate Impact 

• Operational Disruptions: Potential for delays in business operations due to civil unrest, particularly in major urban centers.
• Supply Chain Risks: Transportation and logistics may be affected by protests or security measures, leading to delays.
• Cybersecurity Threats: Increased risk of cyberattacks targeting organizations perceived to be politically affiliated or critical infrastructure.
• Personnel Safety: Heightened risk to staff safety in areas experiencing unrest or targeted attacks.
• Regulatory Changes: Potential for rapid policy shifts affecting various sectors, depending on the new administration's priorities.

Potential Strategic Impact 

The strategic landscape is influenced by multiple concurrent conflicts and geopolitical dynamics. The Ukraine war continues, with Russia making slow advances, while the US presidential election impacts potential support shifts. In the Middle East, the Israel-Gaza conflict persists, with broader regional tensions involving Iran and Hezbollah. 

China-North Korea relations present complexities, as North Korea strengthens ties with Russia, challenging China's regional influence. The Indo-Pacific region faces heightened competition between the US and China, impacting diplomatic and security alignments.

The below forecast encompasses potential strategic impacts on the Ukraine war, the conflict in Israel and Gaza, China and North Korea relations, and Indo-Pacific concerns, observing geopolitical shifts and security implications over the next 12 months.

Instability Factors

Geopolitical dynamics are predicted to remain tense, with ongoing military conflicts and strategic competitions likely increasing instability and impacting global security profoundly.

Key Individuals

👤 Donald Trump: Potential Incoming President of the United States. His foreign policy strategies regarding Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific will impact US global influence and strategic dynamics. The ramifications from the current U.S. Presidential elections will likely affect strategic approaches in a dramatic manner. 

👤 Vladimir Putin: President of Russia. His military strategies and diplomatic maneuvers could affect the trajectory of the Ukraine war and broader geopolitical relations, particularly with China and North Korea. Likely to influence tensions and strategic alliances unfavorably. 

👤 Xi Jinping: President of China. His approach to North Korea, Indo-Pacific strategy, and response to US actions could shape regional stability and broader geopolitical conditions, potentially balancing between confrontation and cooperation. 

👤 Benjamin Netanyahu: Prime Minister of Israel. His decisions on Gaza and regional military engagements may escalate or de-escalate Middle Eastern tensions, affecting strategic alliances and international responses. Netanyahu's approach likely perpetuates instability. 

👤 Kim Jong-un: Supreme Leader of North Korea. His military alignment with Russia and nuclear ambitions challenge regional security and could complicate China's strategic interests, contributing to tensions with the US and its allies.

Key Factors 

🔑 US presidential election outcomes potentially altering support for Ukraine and Middle Eastern policies (increases probability of strategic impact due to potential policy shifts). 

🔑 Russia's military actions in Ukraine influencing broader Eastern European security dynamics (increases probability due to direct military implications and economic sanctions). 

🔑 China's strategic moves in the Indo-Pacific, impacting regional security (increases probability as this competition influences regional military buildups). 

🔑 Tensions between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, complicating Middle Eastern stability (increases probability due to military actions potentially leading to broader conflict). 

🔑 North Korea's alignment with Russia and increased military capabilities (increases probability, challenging China's regional control and US strategic responses).

Initial Outcome Assessments 

Final Probability Reasoning: Considering the cumulative context of military conflicts, strategic realignments, and geopolitical aspirations, a mid-range probability of 70% reflects the strong likelihood of intensifying strategic impacts.

No Change Outcome: If current strategic approaches persist without significant changes, geopolitical instability and conflict continuation are expected, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East. The ongoing competition in the Indo-Pacific will likely strain regional alliances and security architecture. 

Opposite Requirements: Significant diplomatic breakthroughs, effective international mediation, and conflict de-escalation would be required to shift strategic impacts towards greater geopolitical stability. This would involve major policy shifts from global powers and sustainable conflict resolutions. 

High Probability Circumstances: For a high probability (>95%) of increased strategic impacts, ongoing conflicts would need to escalate significantly, with major military confrontations or diplomatic breakdowns affecting current alliances and global stability. 

Low Probability Circumstances: A low probability (<5%) scenario would involve successful peace negotiations, significant diplomatic cooperation between conflicting nations, and reduced geopolitical tensions, leading to strategic de-escalation.

• Lower Bound Probability Reasoning: Considering ongoing conflicts and diplomatic tensions, the least favorable outcome holds at least a 60% probability of strategic instability increasing. 
• Upper Bound Probability Reasoning: Given prevailing strategic challenges, the most favorable scenario estimates up to an 85% probability of intensifying geopolitical tensions.

Critical Factors Timeline

MAPPING UPDATES

Source: WSJ