Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Political instability and rising authoritarianism in Latin America, including Milei’s veto of welfare laws in Argentina and El Salvador’s indefinite re-election reform.
• Escalating regional tensions and militarization in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, with Belarus deploying troops near Ukraine and Armenia hosting U.S. military drills.
• Trade disruptions and shifting alliances driven by new U.S. tariffs under Trump, sparking EU negotiations and impacting partners across Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
• Energy and economic maneuvering, with Venezuela resuming limited oil exports to the U.S. and South Africa facing economic turmoil from a 30% U.S. export tariff.
• Persistent security threats, including pipeline attacks in Colombia, insurgent violence in Mozambique and Somalia, and instability in Lebanon and Syria.
• Heightened conflict risk in the Middle East amid Israel–Hezbollah escalation, pressure on Lebanon to disarm the group, and international recognition moves for Palestine.
• Climate and environmental crises, including extreme heat and fire risks in Georgia, a deadly quake in Guatemala, and devastating storms in the Philippines.
• Foreign electoral interference, with Moldova exposing a Russian-backed voter bribery scheme via a mobile app weeks ahead of elections.
• Public health alerts, with Honduras reinstating COVID-19 precautions amid a surge in respiratory illness linked to a new variant.
• Migration and border pressure, including rising deportations in the Dominican Republic, a surge of Afghan returns from Iran, and continued instability in Haiti.