Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

The US-Israeli war against Iran, now entering its sixth week, has become the defining crisis of the current international order. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the greatest global energy security threat in history, driving Brent crude above $115 per barrel and prompting the first-ever emergency G7 summit since 1975. The conflict has killed more than 3,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, and the Gulf states, with active combat fronts expanding through Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iran militias in Iraq, and Houthi missile strikes from Yemen.

Secondary dynamics include the suspension of Ukraine-Russia peace talks as US attention shifts to the Middle East, the deepest transatlantic rift in NATO history as Trump threatens withdrawal and European allies refuse to support the Iran campaign, and the compounding humanitarian catastrophe across Sub-Saharan Africa where 28.1 million additional people face severe food insecurity. The global operating environment is defined by simultaneous energy disruption, overstretched US military capacity, and a widening gap between the number of active crises and the international community's bandwidth to address them.