Sentinel Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

The first week of 2026 opens amid a dense convergence of security, geopolitical, and economic pressures shaping global operating environments. Ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to strain European security and energy logistics. At the same time, incidents involving undersea telecommunications infrastructure in the Baltic Sea have heightened concern over hybrid threats to critical networks. In the Middle East, renewed frictions, including US kinetic actions tied to Venezuela, internal unrest in Iran, and growing strains between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are injecting volatility into energy markets, regional alliances, and regional stability.

Across the Asia Pacific, sustained Chinese military activity near the Taiwan Strait and broader US-China strategic competition continue to elevate risks to global trade flows, technology supply chains, and investor confidence. In Sub-Saharan Africa, ongoing political transitions, insurgent violence, and fragile governance persist as constraints on security and commercial continuity. Collectively, these developments reflect a global risk environment marked by state confrontation, infrastructure disruption, and uneven cooperation, reinforcing the need for heightened awareness of impacts on international stability, business continuity, and operational safety.

Key Global Concerns:

Capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Wife: In the early morning hours of 3 Jan 2026, the United States carried out a combined arms operation on Venezuelan soil in the area of Caracas and surrounding areas. A US SOF team captured Maduro and his wife in conjunction with US law enforcement, and were successfully flown out of the country to the awaiting USS Iwo Jima, and subsequently to New York City to face criminal prosecution. Venezuela is currently in a state of emergency, with all "national defense plans activated."

Iranian Economic Collapse and Escalating Civil Unrest: Iran's economic crisis is deepening following the resignation of Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin on Dec. 29, after the rial collapsed to a record 1.42 million per dollar, and inflation hit a 40-month high of 48.6%. Economic strain has fueled the most significant unrest in three years, concentrated in Western Iran, with at least six reported deaths and mass arrests across the country. On Jan 2, President Donald Trump warned of a potential US response if Iranian security forces escalate force against protesters.

Saudi-UAE Crisis: The conflict in Yemen has reached a critical threshold in the escalation of the wider UAE-Saudi Arabia Crisis. Skirmishes in Hadramaut Province have escalated into larger ground battles between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces and the UAE-backed STC separatists along the Saudi border. Aden airport has suspended flights due to a significant increase in the likelihood of escalation.

Undersea Infrastructure Sabotage In The Baltic Sea: Finnish authorities have seized a foreign-flagged ship sailing from Russia, suspected of intentionally sabotaging critical submarine telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea that connect Nordic and continental European networks. This comes as concerns over coordinated Hybrid warfare tactics targeting critical infrastructure could increase in 2026.

China Completes Live-Fire Exercises Around Taiwan: The PLA completed two days of live-fire military exercises in the waters off the coast of Taiwan, aimed at asserting its sovereignty over the island. Dubbed "Justice Mission 2025", the exercise tested the integration of combined arms and joint operation capabilities across the PLA.

Strategic Overview