GlobalPULSE: 06 JAN 2025

Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Amid increasing pressure on the battlefield, Ukraine faces an uncertain future. The expiration of its gas transit agreement with Russia highlights geopolitical energy risks, especially for Moldova and Transnistria. The evolving dynamics will test Europe's resolve to navigate energy security and ongoing conflict.
• The Israeli-Gaza conflict and proxy confrontations in Yemen reflect growing instability. Diplomatic efforts in Gaza remain stalled as regional powers navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape.
• Governance challenges and socio-political unrest continue across nations such as Mozambique and Guinea. Additionally, South Sudan’s reliance on humanitarian aid emphasizes the urgency of addressing systemic vulnerabilities in the region.
• North Korea’s anti-U.S. stance and escalating Chinese military activity near Taiwan highlight rising tensions, while Indonesia and Thailand's policy shifts underscore the region's economic complexities and realignment efforts.
• Bolivia faces heightened political volatility as former President Evo Morales is summoned for a hearing on human trafficking charges, with potential preventive detention looming.
• Haiti continues to grapple with armed group violence, including a recent attack on a major agricultural machinery company in the capital, exacerbating the country's instability.

In Europe and Eurasia, Ukraine's ongoing struggle on the battlefield is compounded by the expiration of its gas transit agreement with Russia, highlighting vulnerabilities in Europe's energy security infrastructure. Moldova and Transnistria, in particular, face acute challenges, while broader European resolve is tested in navigating the conflict's multifaceted repercussions. MENA region is witnessing profound shifts as regional powers navigate crises with far-reaching implications. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has left a power vacuum, simultaneously, diplomatic developments, such as Egypt’s deployment of troops to Somalia and Syria’s outreach to Saudi Arabia, reflect evolving alliances amidst heightened instability.

In the Americas, Bolivia’s heightened political volatility, coupled with social tensions in countries like Guatemala and Argentina, underscores the fragility of governance across the region. Additionally, environmental crises, such as oil spills in Peru and the Amazon's deforestation-driven criminal networks, highlight the dual impact of organized crime and ecological degradation on human security. The Asia-Pacific region reflects a mix of escalating security tensions and economic recalibrations. while domestic economic adjustments, like Indonesia's revised VAT policy and Thailand's BRICS partnership, reveal the region's shifting approach to global trade and cooperation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, governance challenges, security crises, and humanitarian needs continue to dominate. Mozambique faces escalating unrest following contested elections, with protests turning deadly, and Guinea’s transitional government pushes for constitutional reforms to address mounting political pressure.