Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns

Southeast Asia Humanitarian Crisis: Cyclones Ditwah and Senyar have killed over 1,500 across Indonesia and Sri Lanka, with 908 dead and 650 missing in Indonesia alone. Sumatra remains isolated due to infrastructure damage, and continued heavy rainfall threatens further landslides.

DRC-Rwanda Accords Implementation Gap: Despite the December 4 Washington agreement, fighting continues in eastern DRC. The M23 rebel group's exclusion from the accord creates a critical implementation weakness that will likely sustain regional instability.

Democratic Erosion Across Multiple Regions: Pre-election crackdowns intensify in Uganda (550+ opposition arrests) and Honduras (vote count delays), while El Salvador's civic space rating was downgraded to "Repressed" and Guatemala faces IACHR warnings over judicial interference.

Israel-Lebanon Grey-Zone Confrontation: Israeli strikes and evacuation orders in southern Lebanon continue despite ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, indicating the 2024 agreement functions as a diplomatic framework rather than operational constraint.

Haiti Security Vacuum Deepens: Large-scale gang assaults in the Artibonite region killed civilians including women and children, with mass displacement and no near-term resolution visible.

Serbia Energy Supply Crisis: U.S. sanctions forced Serbia's sole oil refinery to suspend production, with fuel supplies projected to last only until late January 2026.

Benin Coup Attempt Thwarted: Soldiers seized state television December 7 and announced President Talon's overthrow before loyalist forces, supported by Nigerian air and ground deployments, restored government control. At least 14 arrested; coup leader Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri remains at large. Second West African coup attempt in two weeks.

Strategic Overview