Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• South Caucasus peace breakthrough: Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a U.S.-brokered peace deal at the White House, pledging to normalize ties and respect borders, potentially reshaping regional security dynamics.
• Heightened U.S.–Russia engagement: Washington and Moscow confirmed a Trump–Putin meeting for August 15 in Alaska to discuss a possible Ukraine ceasefire; Kyiv’s participation remains uncertain.
• Escalating Gaza operations: Israel’s approval of a plan to occupy Gaza City raises the prospect of prolonged combat, mass displacement, and worsening humanitarian conditions.
• Political turbulence in the Americas: Legislative resistance to executive agendas grows, with Argentina rejecting Milei decrees and Brazil vetoing environmental deregulation laws; Bolivia’s ruling MAS risks missing a runoff for the first time.
• Transnational crime and sovereignty disputes: U.S. prepared military options against Latin American cartels, including in Mexico; tensions rise over Peru–Colombia border claims and U.S.–Venezuela relations.
• African security setbacks: Cameroon’s top court barred opposition leader Maurice Kamto from presidential elections; DR Congo saw over 300 civilians killed in North Kivu amid M23 and Rwandan-linked violence.
• Humanitarian crises deepen: Over 1.3M displaced in Haiti, nearly 60,000 displaced in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado in two weeks, and Uganda nears 2M refugees amid severe aid shortages.
• Economic and environmental fragility: Dominican Republic’s illegal mining fuels environmental destruction; Egypt secures a $35B Israeli gas deal to address energy shortages; Indonesia launches 300% R&D tax deductions.
• Shifting alliances in Asia-Pacific: Philippines–India strategic partnership deepens; Australia opens dialogue with Palestine; Sri Lanka seeks further tariff cuts to secure a U.S. trade deal.
• Cyber and internal security crackdowns: Myanmar enforces new Cybersecurity Law with phone checks; Pakistan hit by deadly police-targeted bombing likely linked to TTP.