Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

KEY GLOBAL CONCERNS

US Military Intervention in Venezuela Reshapes Regional Dynamics. Operation Absolute Resolve captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, triggering immediate regional and global reverberations. Colombia's EMC leader Iván Mordisco has called for armed group unity, raising concerns about cross-border militant coordination along frontier zones where state control remains weak. International response has fractured along predictable lines, with the operation functioning both as a regional destabilizer and a precedent-setting moment for coercive enforcement in foreign policy.

Iran's Nationwide Protests Reach Critical Intensity. Anti-regime demonstrations have spread to all 31 provinces since erupting December 28, with rights groups reporting over 490 deaths and 10,600 arrests. Tehran imposed a nationwide internet blackout on January 8 to disrupt coordination, while security forces have deployed live ammunition against protesters. Supreme Leader Khamenei has condemned demonstrators as foreign collaborators, and the IRGC has declared regime protection a "red line." The situation presents extreme operational risks to communications, movement, and regional stability.

Yemen's STC Dissolution Fragments Rather Than Stabilizes. The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council's January 9 dissolution announcement from Riyadh was immediately contested by key figures, with thousands rallying in Aden on January 10 in defiance of demonstration bans. The situation reflects deepening Saudi-UAE tensions rather than genuine resolution, with control over strategic territory, ports, and resources remaining the core driver of conflict.

Australia's Fire Crisis Triggers State of Disaster. Victoria's bushfires have consumed over 350,000 hectares and destroyed more than 300 structures, with at least one confirmed fatality. Prime Minister Albanese announced $19.5 million in federal-state disaster funding as authorities warn fires may burn for weeks. The crisis demonstrates how environmental stress has shifted from background condition to direct operational risk, straining emergency response capacity and infrastructure.

BRICS-Plus Naval Exercise Signals Shifting Maritime Alignments. The "Will for Peace 2026" exercise launched January 9 at Simon's Town Naval Base near Cape Town, with China leading drills involving Russia, Iran, South Africa, and the UAE. Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt, and Ethiopia participate as observers. Though framed as maritime safety training, the exercise amid US-BRICS tensions and recent tanker seizures underscores growing friction over sea-lane security and alternative security coalition formation.

Strategic Overview 

This week’s reporting highlights how overlapping crises are becoming structural rather than episodic. Security, environmental stress, and governance fragility are no longer separate risk categories but mutually reinforcing drivers of instability. Across regions, coercive enforcement is gaining legitimacy as a policy tool, climate-driven disruptions are producing immediate operational consequences, and political systems continue to function formally while struggling to retain public trust.

Climate Stress Converting into Operational Disruption

Climate-driven events this week underline how environmental stress has moved from a background condition to a direct operational risk. In the Americas, large-scale wildfires in Argentina’s Patagonia forced evacuations and destroyed forest and agricultural land, with potential spillover effects on local supply chains and emergency coordination if conditions worsen. In Europe and Eurasia, floods and severe winter weather disrupted transport, power, and municipal services across multiple states. Albania experienced casualties linked to flooding, Kosovo faced disruption across several municipalities, Belarus and Montenegro reported power and transport interruptions due to heavy snow, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova issued warnings over continued hydrometeorological risks.

Similar dynamics are visible in the Asia Pacific. Catastrophic fires in Australia and the landfill collapse in Cebu, Philippines, demonstrate how environmental fragility and infrastructure weaknesses translate rapidly into casualty risk, displacement, and public pressure on authorities. The common pattern is not the hazard itself, but limited emergency response capacity, fragile infrastructure, and governance systems already under strain.

Coercive Enforcement and the Venezuela Shockwave

The U.S. operation in Venezuela, combined with continued maritime interdictions of sanctioned vessels, marks a shift toward direct enforcement. The implications extend well beyond Venezuela itself. In northern South America, the reported call by Colombia’s EMC leader Iván Mordisco for armed groups to unite following Maduro’s removal raises concerns about cross-border coordination among non-state actors along frontier zones where state control is uneven and illicit networks retain higher control.

Beyond the region, reactions to U.S. actions illustrate a fragmented international response. Within Europe and Eurasia, some states condemned the intervention, others expressed support, while many adopted a cautious or silent posture. This lack of alignment matters operationally: political ambiguity often results in a lack of a coherent strategic positioning. The Venezuela case therefore functions both as a regional destabilizer and as a precedent-setting moment for the broader normalization of coercive enforcement in foreign policy.

Rule-of-Law and Democratic Credibility Under Pressure in the Americas

Across the Americas, institutional credibility remains a key vulnerability. Brazil continues to experience deep polarization driven by institutional confrontation and competing narratives of accountability. Honduras’ decision to pursue an electoral recount reflects persistent distrust in democratic processes, while Ecuador’s investigations into opposition figures and Peru’s dismantling of anti-corruption teams raise concerns over politicization of oversight and weakening judicial independence.

Security narratives further complicate the picture. El Salvador’s extremely low homicide figures are being leveraged to validate a hardline security model, even as corruption exposure and gang violence persist elsewhere in the region. In Mexico, the discovery of a mass grave in Guanajuato during a debate over crime statistics underscores the risk created when official narratives diverge from conditions on the ground. Haiti remains the most acute case, where gang violence directly constrains humanitarian access and basic services, with implications for broader regional stability. Collectively, these dynamics point to political systems that operate procedurally but struggle to maintain legitimacy.

Controlled Instability and Infrastructure Stress in Europe and Eurasia

Europe and Eurasia show a combination of managed stability and persistent strategic volatility. Extreme weather events have repeatedly disrupted mobility and power systems, particularly in the Balkans, raising questions about infrastructure resilience and emergency preparedness. At the same time, the war in Ukraine continues to normalize critical infrastructure targeting and drone warfare. Damage to gas infrastructure near Lviv and sustained drone activity reinforce the trend toward systemic disruption rather than decisive battlefield breakthroughs.

Coalition Fragmentation and Internal Legitimacy Crises in the Middle East and North Africa

In the Middle East and North Africa, internal unrest and coalition competition dominate the security outlook. Iran’s nationwide protests, combined with a communications blackout and intensified repression, highlight a regime response focused on control. Operational risks include movement restrictions, disrupted communications, and heightened exposure of critical infrastructure.

Yemen illustrates coalition fragility. The contested dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), followed by mass mobilization and demonstration bans, suggests fragmentation rather than stabilization. Control over strategic territory, ports, and resource-rich areas remains the core driver, limiting the impact of political declarations. In Syria, renewed clashes in Aleppo and the rapid collapse of a declared ceasefire reinforce the volatility of localized power struggles. Israel’s resumed strikes in Gaza and southern Lebanon further underline the fragility of ceasefire frameworks in environments marked by entrenched armed actors.

Humanitarian Exposure and Strategic Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to reflect entrenched humanitarian and security challenges. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the high number of incidents against humanitarian workers underscores the extreme risk environment facing aid operations. Sudan’s conflict reaching its 1,000th day reinforces the persistence of crisis conditions where displacement and insecurity are structural rather than temporary. Somalia’s pause in U.S. assistance following allegations of aid diversion adds uncertainty to an already fragile humanitarian landscape.

At the same time, strategic engagement is intensifying. The BRICS-plus naval exercise in South African waters, involving China, Russia, and Iran, signals deepening coordination among non-Western powers and adds complexity to maritime security calculations. Parallel diplomatic outreach by China across multiple African states points to continued competition for influence through investment and political alignment, shaping regulatory and operational environments for external actors.

Governance Strain and Environmental Vulnerability in the Asia Pacific

The Asia Pacific region combines strategic signaling with domestic governance strain and environmental exposure. Violence at a gold mine in Afghanistan linked to water scarcity highlights how resource pressure can trigger lethal conflict. Myanmar’s elections proceed amid active fighting and contested legitimacy, reinforcing a pattern of procedural governance without conflict resolution. Indonesia’s decision to restrict access to an AI platform over deepfake-related harm signals a growing willingness to use regulatory controls to manage digital risk, with implications for information access and rights.

Regional tensions persist through familiar escalation dynamics, including North Korea’s disputed drone claims and ongoing border stabilization efforts involving external actors. Environmental shocks, from fires in Australia to infrastructure failures in the Philippines, continue to impose immediate operational and reputational costs on governments already managing political and security pressure.

Outlook

This reporting period underscores an environment where crises are increasingly interconnected. Climate disruption amplifies governance stress, legitimacy erosion creates openings for non-state actors, and coercive enforcement actions impact across regions through political signaling and operational spillover. States are relying more openly on coercion and restriction, while institutions struggle to deliver resilience.

In the short to medium term, these dynamics point to more frequent overlapping crises, shorter escalation chains, and slower stabilization cycles. Anticipating risk will require integrated analysis that treats environmental stress, governance credibility, and security dynamics as interdependent rather than discrete factors.

Week Ahead

Key events and developments to watch in the coming week.

12-13 JAN 2026: 12-13 JAN 2026: German Chancellor Merz will meet PM Modi in Ahmedabad for strategic partnership for cooperation in sectors such as trade, defense, tech, science etc.

12 JAN 2026:  The international court of justice will begin hearings on allegations of genocide against Myanmar’s military regarding Rohingya atrocities.

13-14 JAN 2026: President Lee will visit Japan for a bilateral summit with PM Takaichi focusing on regional security coordination, as well as economic and social issues.

14 JAN 2026: The U.S. The Supreme Court is expected to issue its rulings on the issue of legality of President Trump's global tariffs.

15 JAN 2026: Uganda will hold presidential and parliamentary elections.

18 JAN 2026: Portugal will have its first round of presidential election.

Ongoing: Iran faces large-scale anti-government demonstrations across the country amid economic crisis and internet blackouts.

Ongoing: Lebanon and Israel face cross border tensions between them as Israel fires airstrikes in Lebanon, maintaining a high risk environment along the southern frontier. The violence is linked to regional tensions over Gaza. 

Critical Events & Emerging Risks 

Active Events

Dissolution of UAE-Backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) Contested in Yemen: Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) regarding the conflict in Yemen remain dynamic and kinetic. The January 9th “dissolution” of the UAE-backed STC has been contested by multiple key figures, leaving the group fractured rather than dissolved, as thousands in Aden took to the streets in support of the STC on January 10th. While the security situation has recently normalized in Aden, government forces ordered a ban on all public demonstrations on January 10th as the situation remains dynamic and the plausibility of escalation and renewed skirmishes remains a key concern. 

Iranian Internal Security Crisis: Iran’s internal security crisis has continued to escalate, with nationwide protests becoming increasingly volatile and growing in size. Tehran imposed a nationwide internet blackout and communications shutdown to disrupt coordination and media coverage, while security forces have used live ammunition, tear gas, and mass arrests against demonstrators. Rights groups and reporting indicate at least 490 deaths and over 10,600 arrests, with protests spreading to all 31 provinces amid chants against leadership and glowing calls for broader political change. The Iranian army and IRGC have publicly pledged to defend “national security” and critical infrastructure, declaring safeguarding the regime a “red line.” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has condemned protesters as collaborators with foreign enemies, while international leaders have urged restraint. The situation remains volatile with significant operational risks to communications, movements, and both regional and civic stability. 

Emerging Risks

BRICS Plus Naval Exercise: The  “Will for Peace 2026” BRICS Plus naval exercise, involving China, Russia, and Iran in South African waters, signals deepening military coordination among non-Western powers. Though framed as maritime safety training, its timing amid U.S.–BRICS tensions and tanker seizures underscores growing friction over sea-lane security. The drills could strengthen alternative security coalitions, complicate NATO and Indo-Pacific frameworks, and reshape regional maritime power and trade risk calculations.

U.S. Maritime Interdictions on Sanctioned Vessels: The United States has once again intensified its maritime interdictions of sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuelan sanctions, including the Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic and the Olina in the Caribbean. These enforcement actions reflect a harder U.S. posture against sanctions-evasion “shadow fleet” tankers operating in international waters, raising the potential for diplomatic friction with Russia and sanctions targets, and signaling an elevated risk for global shipping operations near key trade routes and the possibility of spill-over effects into other geopolitical realms.

NATO’s Response to Trump’s Renewed Calls to Acquire Greenland: Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland and comments about U.S. control to deter Russia/China have rattled NATO allies this week, prompting Denmark to warn that any U.S. takeover could undermine the alliance and sparking European solidarity behind Danish sovereignty. Nordic and EU partners are planning diplomatic and security responses while NATO has remained publicly muted, raising early concerns about alliance cohesion and Arctic strategic risk, diverting crucial attention away from more significant geopolitical and security issues facing NATO.

Australia’s Intensifying Fire Season: Australia’s southeastern states are facing an intensifying fire season and brushfire crisis driven by an extreme heatwave and dry conditions. In Victoria, fires have scorched over 350,000 hectares and destroyed more than 300 structures, prompting state disaster declarations and total fire bans. Emergency services warn blazes may burn for weeks under current conditions. Smoke has degraded air quality across Victoria and New South Wales, triggering health warnings and complicating emergency responses. The Australian Defence Force has been placed on standby, and federal/state governments are distributing millions in relief funding. Multiple major fires pose a risk to personnel safety, infrastructure, power grids, and the regional supply chain.

Regional Developments

Americas Key Developments

Across the Americas, the trends and observations show a convergence of environmental stress, institutional strain, and security recalibration, with several trends carrying cross-border implications. In the Southern Cone, large-scale wildfires in Argentina’s Patagonian provinces of Chubut and Santa Cruz highlight the region’s growing vulnerability to climate-driven disasters. The displacement of thousands and the destruction of agricultural land risk longer-term economic disruption and may strain interprovincial and cross-border emergency coordination with Chile if fires continue to spread.

Security dynamics are also shifting as Bolivia’s allowance of U.S. anti-drug surveillance flights signals a tentative opening toward renewed counternarcotics cooperation. This comes after years of limited engagement, a move that could reshape regional drug-trafficking monitoring across the Andean corridor. In Colombia, calls by EMC leader Iván Mordisco for unity among armed groups following U.S. action in Venezuela suggest heightened risks of coordination among non-state actors, potentially increasing cross-border militancy and instability along Colombia-Venezuela frontier zones.

Governance and rule-of-law pressures remain pronounced in Brazil, Honduras, Ecuador, and Peru. Brazil’s political polarization deepened after President Lula vetoed legislation that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro’s sentence, reinforcing institutional checks but also sustaining tensions among Bolsonaro’s supporters. Similar concerns over democratic integrity and accountability are evident elsewhere as Honduras’ decision to recount the 2025 elections reflects persistent electoral distrust; Ecuador’s investigations into Correa-aligned opposition figures highlight ongoing politicization of oversight institutions; and Peru’s dismantling of anti-corruption teams raises alarms about backsliding in judicial independence.

Contrasting security narratives arise in El Salvador, Mexico, and Haiti. El Salvador’s historically low homicide rate is being leveraged to validate its hardline security model, even as Mexico faces scrutiny over official crime statistics amid discoveries of mass graves in Guanajuato. 

Meanwhile, Haiti’s deepening gang violence has forced the withdrawal of critical humanitarian services, underscoring the regional humanitarian and security spillover risks. Collectively, these developments point to a region grappling with compounded crises; environmental, political, and security-related, whose effects increasingly transcend country borders.

Argentina: Large wildfires are actively burning across parts of southern Argentina’s Patagonia region, especially in the Chubut and Santa Cruz provinces. Thousands of people have been evacuated from affected areas as the fires spread through forests and agricultural land. Around 3,000 hectares of forest and land have burned since the fires began earlier in the week.

Bolivia: U.S. anti-drug officials, including representatives from the DEA, participated in a surveillance flight over Bolivia’s coca-growing regions to evaluate the state of drug trafficking and the possibility of renewed cooperation with Bolivian authorities.

Brazil: On January 8th, 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill passed by congress that would have significantly reduced the 27-years prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted over his role in a failed coup attempt and the January 2023 riots in Brasília.

Colombia: Ivan Mordisco, the leader of the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), called for unity with the ELN (Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional) and other armed groups following the U.S. military attack in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Dominican Republic: Dominican Republic: The National Congress adopted a bill to create a new National Intelligence Directorate (DNI). The DNI will head the new National Intelligence System in the country. Opposition parties expressed concern over potential violations of constitutional rights of citizens by this new institution, whose prerogatives remain vague.

El Salvador: El Salvador registered 82 intentional homicides in the entire years with an homicide rate of 1.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, extremely low compared to past years. The government highlighted these figures to support the claim that El Salvador is currently the safest country in the Western Hemisphere in terms of security outcomes.

Ecuador: The Ecuadoran Electoral Disputes Tribunal launched investigations into Correa-aligned political leaders of the Citizen Revolution party over their failure to justify their campaign finance accounts for the 2023 elections. Citizen Revolution is the main opposition force to the government of Daniel Noboa.

Haiti: Doctors Without Borders has suspended operation at its medical clinic in the Bel-Air neighborhood of Port-Au-Prince because of escalating gang violence and clashes with police in the area. The suspension came after seven DWB community volunteers were trapped amid violence and a former volunteer died from injuries.

Honduras: The Honduran Parliament approved a recount of the November 2025 general elections. The initiative emerged amidst polarization and institutional distrust. The National Electoral Council had already declared Nasry Asfura as president-elect.

Mexico: A clandestine mass grave containing the bodies of at least 17 people has been discovered in the Mexican state of Guanajuato. This discovery comes as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum praised her government's security strategy, which has resulted in the lowest homicide rate since 2016. However, the official figures have been criticized, particularly regarding possible statistical manipulation and a change in counting methodology.

Peru: The interim attorney general of Peru dismantled special teams investigating major corruption cases in the country. His predecessor, Delia Espinoza, was suspended over an alleged constitutional violation. Espinoza's predecessor was also suspended for allegedly leading a corruption network.

Venezuela: The US intercepted a fifth oil tanker from Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea. The ship was sanctioned for its role in transporting Russian oil. The Trump administration continues to exert pressure on Venezuela’s oil exports and so-called dark fleet following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro.

Europe & Eurasia Key Developments

The region of Europe/Eurasia experienced a week of increased bilateral relations, government changes, anti-US statements, responses to drastic weather patterns, and more hybrid warfare. Armenia’s Secretary of the Security Council had discussions with the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran to reiterate the significance of the North-South road systems. EU sanctions against Turkey have been backed by Moldova in regards to unlawful drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

The President of Romania has constructed a referendum for a change in the judiciary department. Early parliamentary elections will officially be held this year in Serbia following the statements made by President Vucic. Poland has rejected the EU digital law stating that governments should not determine what the citizens can and can’t view online. 

Belarus President Lukashenko made statements adamantly disagreeing with the US actions in Venezuela. He stated the US has now created even greater global problems. De facto government officials in Georgia took a similar approach and expressed their concerns over the US attack. 

Albanian officials convened to discuss how to resolve the damage caused by the recent floods. Montenegro has experienced similar weather patterns and has dealt with an increase in snow as well as landslides. 

Authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina expressed their concerns over threats of the possibility of an attack at the border crossing near Orašje. Law enforcement officials in Kosovo arrested over 30 individuals in a major fraud scheme. Ukraine was yet again the victim of drone strikes which resulted in significant damage to major cities. The drones reportedly came from a ballistic missile site in Moscow.  

Albania: The Inter-Ministerial Committee for Civil Emergencies met to address response gaps after floods that caused one death and disrupted transport, power and water since January 4. Additionally, a major warehouse fire in Tirana required army support.

Armenia: The Armenian Secretary of the Security Council met with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister to discuss the importance of North-South road infrastructure. Bilateral meetings were held also with UK and US representatives to develop regional cooperation. 

Belarus: Lukashenko condemns US actions in Venezuela as unjust and destabilizing, accuses Washington of coercion and theatrics, warns of global security fallout. Separately, heavy snow and strong winds caused power outages in the capital and eastern regions.

Bosnia & Herzegovina: BiH authorities raised security after threats of an armed attack on the Orašje border crossing, while the Presidency approved in principle AFBiH participation in a future ISF peace mission in Gaza. Heightened monitoring continues due to snow and hydrometeorological risks.

Georgia: De facto authorities in Georgia’s occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia condemned the US attack on Venezuela and Maduro’s capture, as Tbilisi stayed silent. Separately, Georgians were reportedly among the crew of a US-seized Russia-flagged tanker linked to Venezuela sanction

Kosovo: Kosovo police arrested 39 people over large-scale fraud manipulating accident compensation claims at the Kosovo Insurance Bureau, seizing assets and freezing €1.3m. Separately, flooding and extreme weather also disrupted several municipalities.

Montenegro: Despite improving weather, traffic in Montenegro remains slow and disrupted due to snow, landslides, fog and floods. Heavy rain caused flooding in Podgorica suburbs, while the Morača River remains elevated. 

Moldova: Moldova has joined EU sanctions against Turkey over unauthorized drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean, aligning with Brussels despite risks to trade ties. Separately, authorities warned that abnormal frost is approaching, with possible disruptions to the transport sector.

Poland: Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the EU's social media law (EU Digital Services Act). Pro-EU Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned this decision. The bill, criticized by U.S. President Donald Trump, seeks to force big platforms such as X, Facebook, and Instagram to better moderate content. The Polish Media Council put out a comment, declaring the veto would hinder the fight against online disinformation.

Romania: Romanian President Nicușor Dan is preparing a referendum for a judicial reform under development. The overhaul of the judiciary follows the large protests last December sparked by the release of an investigative report revealing widespread judicial corruption in Romania.

Serbia: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced that early parliamentary elections will be held in 2026, following a year of student-led protests demanding political change. Elections were scheduled to be held at the end of 2027. President Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party has been discredited over the accusations of widespread corruption and mismanagement after the Novi Sad railway station collapse in 2024.

Ukraine: Between January 8-9, drone strikes hit Kyiv and southeastern regions, causing damage, fires and casualties. Explosions damaged underground gas infrastructure near Lviv, reportedly caused by Russia’s Oreshnik, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile Moscow recently confirmed deploying.

Middle East & North Africa Key Developments

The biggest challenges to security in the Middle East and North Africa are social unrest and growing isolated military conflict.

Iran is experiencing anti-regime protests countrywide, with protests reported in every Iranian province, affecting major urban areas, including Tehran.  Protests turned deadly with both protestors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suffering injuries and death, with thousands of protestors arrested.  On January 8^th, Ayatollah Khamenei instituted a nationwide internet blackout to control protests, and further crackdown is expected. The U.S. expressed its support to the Iranian protestors and warned Khamenei of taking violent action to suppress the protests.  The situation in Iran remains fluid and extremely volatile.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) is dissolved in Yemen.  The dissolution of the STC comes after immense political pressure from Saudi Arabia against the STC before the upcoming Southern Dialogue Conference.  The move comes just after Yemeni Defense Minister Moshen al-Daeri was dismissed from his post on January 8^th.

Violent armed conflict broke out on January 6^th between Kurdish and transitional government forces in Aleppo, Syria, injuring dozens.  While no official death toll has been announced, thousands are displaced.  A ceasefire was declared on January 9^th failing immediately.  Fighting in Aleppo continues after the Syrian government resumed attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Israel resumes airstrikes in Palestine and southern Lebanon, testing the integrity of the current ceasefire.  11 were killed in Palestine during an Israeli airstrike on January 8^th targeting Hamas operatives. Israel also targeted sites associated with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as the Lebanese government affirms it is committed to continuing the disarmament of Hezbollah in the south. 

Egypt: Egypt and Syria signed two MoUs under which Cairo will supply LNG to Syria for power generation and meet its petroleum product needs. At the same time, Egyptians are now the leading African nationality migrating irregularly to Europe, as the country's economic hardships persist into 2026.

Iran: Tehran imposed a nationwide internet and phone blackout to curb demonstrations as they continue to grow, while  Khamenei publicly vowed no leniency and blamed foreign interference for the unrest. Rights groups claim at least 490 people have been killed, with more than 10,600 arrested so far.

Iraq: Iraq nationalized West Qurna 2 operations after Lukoil’s exit amid sanctions. Political coalition talks continue post-Nov elections with PM Sudani seeking stability; militia disarmament tied to U.S. troop withdrawal remains unresolved.

Israel: Israel has continued military actions in Gaza and southern Lebanon, striking Hezbollah and Hamas targets through the ceasefire. Israel barred some foreign aid staff from entering Gaza and delivering aid. FM Saar visited Somaliland, drawing regional criticism following its formal recognition. 

Lebanon: Renewed Israel–Hezbollah tensions have escalated, with Israeli strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon testing ceasefire lines. The Lebanese army says it is asserting state control in the south as disarmament talks continue.  Beirut is advancing offshore gas deals to ease the economic strain on the nation.

Palestinian Territories: Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip killed at least 11 Palestinians on January 8. This comes after an Israeli-backed Palestinian militia known as the Popular Forces claimed it killed two Hamas operatives and detained a third during a raid in Rafah in southern Gaza, and an Israeli airstrike killed at least two Palestinians in Gaza City after Israeli troops came under fire, with the military saying the strike targeted a senior Hamas militant responsible for attacks on its forces on January 7.

Qatar: Qatar and Egypt have signed an agreement to expand cooperation on liquefied natural gas (LNG), allowing Qatari LNG shipments to be delivered to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Damietta ports. The deal includes the supply of up to 24 LNG cargoes to Egypt during the upcoming summer.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia will open its financial markets to all foreign investors starting February 1, ending restrictions that previously limited access to Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs), the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) announced. The change allows any global investor to trade directly in Saudi capital markets.

Syria: Syria declared a 6-hr ceasefire in Aleppo that collapsed after Kurdish forces rejected withdrawal orders, prompting an army push on Sheikh Maksoud. The SDF later withdrew under a deal. Separately, the U.S. continued airstrikes on ISIS on January 10, while approximately 1,000 troops remain in Syria.

Yemen: Yemen’s Saudi-backed presidential leadership council has dismissed Defence Minister Mohsen al-Daeri. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen also accused the United Arab Emirates of helping Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), flee Yemen by boat, as Saudi-backed forces advanced toward Aden after regaining territory previously seized by separatists. The STC appeared to split on Friday, with some members in Riyadh announcing the group was disbanding, while others close to leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi rejected this decision.

Sub-Saharan Africa Key Developments

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, recent developments highlight a region grappling with heightened security risks, shifting diplomatic alignments, and mounting humanitarian pressures. 

In West Africa, Ghana’s engagement with Ukraine over its nationals fighting for Russia underscores the increasingly globalized dimensions of local migration and security issues. At the same time, Ghana’s slowing inflation offers a rare economic bright spot amid wider regional instability.

In Central Africa, the re-election of CAR President Touadéra consolidates existing political structures but risks entrenching long-standing governance challenges. Neighbouring DR Congo continues to face extreme volatility, with the UN reporting sustained and deadly attacks on humanitarian workers, reflecting a deteriorating protection environment.

Nigeria exemplifies the intersection of internal insecurity and external scrutiny: jihadist and communal violence remains pervasive, while comments by the US President suggesting possible strikes deepen concerns about foreign intervention.

In the Horn of Africa, tensions persist as the US suspends assistance to Somalia over alleged misuse of humanitarian aid, signalling eroding trust between Mogadishu and Washington. Meanwhile, the Sudanese conflict has surpassed 1,000 days, becoming the world’s largest humanitarian crisis and fuelling massive displacement across borders.

Across Eastern and Southern Africa, external powers continue to expand influence. China’s diplomatic tour, including talks with Tanzania’s leadership, reinforces Beijing’s sustained strategic engagement. Uganda and Tanzania’s forthcoming crude oil exports highlight continued investment in cross-border energy cooperation despite political tensions ahead of Uganda’s elections.

In South Africa, the inaugural BRICS-plus naval exercise involving Russia, China, and Iran signifies an emerging multipolar security posture, raising broader questions about maritime competition.

Collectively, these developments point to converging trends of geopolitical recalibration, intensified security pressures, and deepening humanitarian needs across the continent.

Cameroon: At least eleven separatist fighters were killed in a military ambush in Cameroon’s Northwest region, with one soldier injured. The incident reflects the ongoing violence in the Anglophone conflict, where armed groups have sought independence since 2017.

Ghana: Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister, Andriy Sybiha, has confirmed his country’s readiness to open talks with Ghana over Ghanaian citizens captured fighting for Russia. Meanwhile, inflation in Ghana has reportedly slowed, falling from 6.3% in November to 5.4% in December 2025. 

Guinea: Guinea’s Supreme Court has confirmed junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya as president-elect after he won 86.7% of the vote, solidifying his post-coup transition to elected leader. The result, reached amid a weakened opposition, comes as the country faces deep poverty despite vast mineral resources.

Central African Republic: Incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadera has been re-elected for a third term in office. The incumbent won  76.15% of the total votes following presidential elections held on December 28. 

Nigeria: According to a recent report by the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety), Jihadists and Fulani herdsmen contributed to more 70% of violent attacks in communities and places of worship in Nigeria in 2025. US President Donald Trump has suggested that the US could carry out further military strikes in Nigeria. 

Somalia: The US State Department has announced that it has paused all ongoing US assistance to the Somalian Federal Government following an alleged seizure of 76 metric tons of US-funded World Food Programme aid to the country by the Somali government. 

South Africa: The BRICS-plus naval exercise has commenced in South Africa, with Russian, Chinese, and Iranian warships participating in the joint exercise. This is the first time BRICS is holding such an exercise, which is coming on the backdrop of increasing maritime tensions. 

South: This week marked the 1,000th Day since the outbreak of the Sudanese conflict, which has killed and displaced dozens in Khartoum, Darfur, and elsewhere. According to the United Nations, the conflict has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis

Tanzania: China’s Foreign Affairs Minister has held talks with the Tanzanian President Salalu in Dar Es Salaam, to deepen bilateral relations between the two states. The Chinese foreign minister is currently on tour in several Sub-Saharan African countries as part of China’s broader diplomatic framework in Africa. 

Uganda: Uganda and Tanzania will begin crude oil export later in October through the $5billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline. Ugandan’s will head to poll next week to elect a new president amid a tight crackdown against the opposition. 

DR Congo: The United Nations has said that more than a dozen humanitarian workers were killed in the DRC in 2025, with around 6,000 incidents recorded against humanitarian workers. 

Asia-Pacific Key Developments

Across the Asia Pacific, events this week underscore how domestic crises increasingly spill into regional debates over security, environmental governance, rights, and technology. Localized conflicts like clashes at a gold mine in Afghanistan linked to water scarcity and environmental damage. In India, concerns were where police raided the home of a prominent climate activist on allegations of support for foreign backed treaty that would threaten national energy priorities. In Australia and the Philippines, climate linked disasters took place as catastrophic fires in Victoria have destroyed hundreds of structures, while a landfill collapse in Cebu highlights infrastructure vulnerabilities and uneven environmental oversight.  

There were also tensions between countries on several issues. North Korea’s claim of shooting down a South Korean spy drone feeds into a familiar cycle of accusations and denials, while Myanmar pushes ahead with elections amid active conflict and contested legitimacy. Taiwan faced new measures from Beijing, creating tensions. Meanwhile, Pakistan will not be included in the discussions around a Gaza stabilization force amid Israeli distrust.  

The United States announced a $45 million aid package aimed at curbing issues between Thailand and Cambodia to stabilize the shared border. Religious and ethnic tensions continue to flare in Bangladesh. Measures taken in Indonesia to block Grok over AI generated sexual deepfakes positions digital rights and public safety as an emerging regional policy. In Sri Lanka, efforts towards the Digital Transformation Project signal technological upgrades which can stimulate the private sector.

Afghanistan: Conflict broke out at a gold mine in a northern province of Afghanistan between locals and a gold mining company. The violence took place in Takhar province and has left at least four dead, three locals and one company personnel. The Taliban has not given an official explanation for the violence, but reporting links the cause of violence to water shortages and concerns about environmental damage.

Australia: Fires are raging in the southern state of Victoria with no end in sight. The government reported at least 32 active fires in Victoria on Sunday morning, and announced a $19.5 million support package for the state. Hundreds of structures have burned down since the fires started on Wednesday. 

Bangladesh: A Hindu man was targeted and killed in Bangladesh on Thursday. The man’s death follows a rise in persecution against Hindus in Bangladesh that has left multiple dead in recent weeks. In December, a Hindu man was lynched after being dragged from his workplace. 

India: The home of one of India’s top environmental activists, Harjeet Singh, was raided by police because of his support for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. Authorities allege Singh was paid close to £500,000 to advocate for the treaty and that the treaty would compromise India's energy security and development. 

Indonesia: Indonesia became the first country to block Grok, the AI chatbot created by Elon Musk, on Saturday because of AI generated sexual deepfakes and pornography. The government announced that it is temporarily blocking access to the app in order to protect the security of citizens and prevent the violation of human rights.

Myanmar: Voting began Sunday on the second round of Myanmar’s general election. The military-backed government defends the legitimacy of the vote despite many critics, opposition groups, and rights organizations asserting the opposite. Fighting between the government and armed opposition groups continues during the election. 

North Korea: North Korea shot down a drone Saturday, January 4 that it claims was a spy drone sent by South Korea. The South Korean government denies the claim stating that there is no record of a flight and that the military uses different drone models. North Korea has previously made similar claims, most recently in September 2025.

Pakistan: A proposal to include Pakistan in the potential International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was rejected by Israel due to a lack of trust with the country and its possible ties to Hamas. Under the plan created by President Donald Trump, different countries would contribute troops to the ISF to help manage Gaza. The Israeli government fears ties between Hamas and other Pakistan-based terror groups and will not accept its participation in the force.

Philippines: A landfill collapsed in Cebu City, located in central Philippines, on Thursday, January 8 killing at least four workers and trapping many others underneath a pile of waste. Rescue efforts are still underway and have detected signs of life under the rubble.

Sri Lanka: The World Bank granted $50 million to the Sri Lanka Digital Transformation Project, a project that aims to digitalize government services and work on growing the country’s digital economy. If successful, the project will improve the accessibility of services to citizens and encourage more growth in the digital private sector.

Taiwan: The PRC banned two Taiwanese ministers and their families from entering China because of activities related to Taiwan’s independence. The PRC labeled the two ministers, as well as others at different times, as successionists and is criticized by the Taiwanese government for trying to treat the situations as domestic criminal offenses.

Thailand: The United States will send $45 million in aid to support the truce that ended hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia. The money will support efforts in border stabilization, de-mining, and combatting drug trafficking and cyberscams.

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