Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Heightened U.S. leverage in the Americas: Treasury’s $20B swap framework with Argentina and hardline pivot on Venezuela signal more transactional U.S. engagement shaping markets and geopolitics.
• Governance shock in Peru: Congress ousts Boluarte for “moral incapacity,” installing Jerí and adding uncertainty ahead of elections within six months.
• Ukraine war spillovers: Long-range strikes on Russian industrial targets sustain military-economic pressure and keep European energy and transport risks elevated.
• Western Balkans frictions: Accusations of Serbian interference (Kosovo), elite arrests (Montenegro), and political deadlock add to EU integration and security headwinds.
• MENA de-escalation tests: Gaza ceasefire/hostage framework inches forward; parallel push to curb Hezbollah—any breakdown risks rapid regional escalation.
• Hydrocarbon deals vs. diversification: New oil agreements (Iraq/Libya/Qatar) contrast with Saudi non-oil momentum, complicating price and supply outlooks.
• Sub-Saharan political volatility: South Sudan military reshuffle amid Machar trial raises relapse-to-war risk; Sahel/Great Lakes insecurity fuels displacement and NGO access constraints.
• Indo-Pacific flashpoints: Australian warnings of U.S.–China conflict risk, DPRK missile advances, and Myanmar/Pakistan violence sustain elevated defense and supply-chain uncertainty—even as Taiwan’s semiconductor surge deepens tech dependence.