Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Gaza Humanitarian Crisis: Storm Byron flooded displacement camps across Gaza, killing at least 14 people including children, as over 27,000 tents were destroyed or inundated. Aid agencies warn that Israeli restrictions continue to block essential shelter materials, exposing nearly 850,000 displaced Palestinians to life-threatening conditions.
• Eastern DRC Conflict Escalation: The Rwanda-backed M23 armed group captured Uvira in South Kivu despite a US-brokered peace deal signed December 4, displacing over 200,000 people and killing more than 400 civilians. The US accused Rwanda of violating commitments, with 5,000-7,000 Rwandan troops reportedly fighting alongside rebels.
• Haiti Security Mission Reinforcement: Kenya deployed 230 additional police officers to the Gang Suppression Force on December 8, bringing total personnel to over 700. The GSF replaces the under-resourced prior mission with a mandate to actively dismantle gangs controlling 90% of Port-au-Prince.
• Australia Terrorist Attack: A mass shooting at a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach on December 14 killed 16 people and injured over 40, marking Australia's deadliest terrorist attack since 1996. The attack targeted Sydney's Jewish community during the first night of Hanukkah.
• Red Sea–Hormuz Tensions: Iran conducted IRGC naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz involving ballistic missile launches and drone strikes, signaling heightened military readiness amid regional tensions and increasing risks to critical energy transit routes.

Strategic Overview 

This week's global security landscape was defined by the convergence of humanitarian catastrophe, conflict escalation, and targeted violence, with events across multiple regions demonstrating how interconnected crises can rapidly compound existing vulnerabilities.

The most acute humanitarian emergency unfolded in Gaza, where Storm Byron struck displacement camps already overwhelmed by two years of conflict. At least 14 people died, including an eight-month-old infant who succumbed to hypothermia after floodwaters inundated her family's tent. The Gaza Government Media Office reported more than 27,000 tents destroyed or flooded, affecting an estimated 250,000 displaced families. Aid agencies including UNRWA and Oxfam condemned ongoing Israeli restrictions that continue to block essential shelter materials, fuel, and water infrastructure, describing the suffering as manufactured by policy, not weather. The International Organization for Migration warned that approximately 850,000 people sheltering in 761 displacement sites face elevated flood risk, while civil defense teams struggle to respond with fuel shortages crippling their operational capacity.

In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the fragile US-brokered peace accord signed December 4 between Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame collapsed within days. The Rwanda-backed M23 armed group captured the strategic town of Uvira in South Kivu province, displacing over 200,000 people and killing more than 400 civilians according to regional officials. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz accused Rwanda of leading the region towards increased instability and war, stating that Kigali has maintained strategic control of M23 since the group re-emerged in 2021, with an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 Rwandan troops fighting alongside the rebels. Secretary of State Rubio called Rwanda's actions a clear violation of the peace deal, threatening US action. The offensive threatens to draw neighboring Burundi deeper into the conflict, with cross-border artillery and drone strikes already reported on Burundian territory.

Haiti's security mission saw renewed momentum with the deployment of 230 Kenyan police officers to the newly restructured Gang Suppression Force on December 8, bringing Kenya's total contribution to over 700 personnel. The GSF, approved by the UN Security Council in September, replaces the under-resourced Multinational Security Support mission with a more aggressive mandate to dismantle gangs, secure infrastructure, and support humanitarian access. The first contingent of Kenyan officers completed their 18-month deployment and returned home, credited with restoring freedom of movement and reopening critical road networks in Port-au-Prince. However, the UN estimates armed groups still control approximately 90 percent of the capital, with murders, rapes, kidnappings, and road blockades continuing to drive displacement of more than 1.4 million people across the country.

The week concluded with the deadliest terrorist attack in Australia since 1996. On December 14, two gunmen—identified as a father-son duo aged 50 and 24—opened fire on a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach, killing 16 people including a 10-year-old child and injuring at least 42 others. Prime Minister Albanese declared it a targeted attack on Jewish Australians and designated it a terrorist incident. The attack, which occurred during the first night of Hanukkah at a Chabad-organized event attended by nearly 1,000 people, prompted global condemnation and raised urgent questions about rising antisemitism amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Police found improvised explosive devices at the scene, underscoring the premeditated nature of the assault.

The connecting thread across these crises is the accelerating erosion of civilian protection frameworks. In Gaza, ceasefire agreements have failed to restore humanitarian access; in the DRC, peace accords signed with diplomatic fanfare collapsed within days; in Haiti, international security forces remain vastly under-resourced against entrenched criminal networks; and in Australia, community events became targets of ideologically motivated violence. These developments collectively signal a deteriorating global security environment where diplomatic agreements face immediate stress-testing, humanitarian corridors remain contested, and civilian populations bear the overwhelming burden of political failures. Organizations operating in these environments must prepare for sustained volatility, recognizing that stabilization timelines across all regions remain highly uncertain.

Week Ahead

Key events and developments to watch in the coming week.

15 DEC

• Rome: VIII Conference of the Ambassadors of Italy to the World
• Brussels: EU Foreign Affairs Council 
• Geneva: The World Trade Organization will launch its GVC Development Report 2025

16 DEC

• USA: Local elections are scheduled in Georgia and Kentucky

17 DEC

• Brussels:  EU-Western Balkans Summit 

18 DEC

• Cameroon: Jailed Anglophone separatist leaders, including Ayuk Tabe, are scheduled to appear before the Supreme Court.

21 DEC

• Chile:  will hold the second round of its presidential elections 
• Russia: CIS leaders to meet in St. Petersburg for the traditional informal meeting.

Critical Events & Emerging Risks 

Gaza Humanitarian and Security Crisis Deepens: Severe flooding following heavy rainfall has overwhelmed displacement camps across Gaza, blocking emergency supply routes and worsening already catastrophic humanitarian conditions. Simultaneously, Israel’s approval of additional settlement construction in the West Bank has intensified regional tensions, triggering international backlash and increasing the risk of further escalation.

Haiti Security Collapse Intensifies: The deployment of Kenyan-led foreign police forces highlights the extreme deterioration of internal security as armed gangs retain effective control over large areas. Violence, mass displacement, and attacks on infrastructure persist, with no near-term stabilization in sight. Operational risks for humanitarian actors, logistics chains, and diplomatic missions remain exceptionally high.

Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo Conflict Escalates: Fighting continues in South Kivu despite recent U.S.-brokered peace agreements, with the African Union condemning renewed clashes and Rwanda accused of violating ceasefire commitments. The conflict threatens regional spillover, disrupts humanitarian access, and undermines diplomatic efforts, requiring organizations to plan for sustained instability.

Red Sea–Hormuz Escalation Risk: Iran conducted large-scale IRGC naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz involving missile launches and drone strikes, signaling heightened readiness amid regional tensions. Given the strait’s critical role in global energy transit, the drills increase the risk of miscalculation, maritime incidents, and disruptions to strategic supply chains.

Yemen Power Shift Threatens Renewed Civil War: The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council has consolidated control over key southern governorates, including Aden, significantly weakening the internationally recognized government. This territorial shift risks reigniting large-scale conflict, fracturing anti-Houthi coordination, and destabilizing Red Sea security.

Tunisia Political Unrest Intensifies: Nationwide protests continue against President Saied’s political crackdown following the sentencing of opposition leader Abir Moussi to 12 years in prison. Escalating repression and civil unrest signal deep governance fragility, raising concerns over internal stability and potential violent escalation.

Emerging Risks

Peru Receives Military Equipment from South Korea: The Peruvian army is receiving a significant amount of military supplies including tanks and armored vehicles. This historic shipment to Latin America would be the biggest export of military equipment by South Korea. This marks the first time K2 tanks will appear in Latin America.

Belarus President Calls for Updated Defense Systems: President Lukashenko has urged for advancements in the military, stating the necessity to build strong borders and military capabilities. He called this a threat to national security if the borders are not secure especially along the Eastern Flank. 

Iran Tests their Military Weapons: The Naval forces, as part of the IRGC, held a recent naval exercise in which they conducted ballistic firing tests and missiles. Drones were used to strike other simulated targets during the exercise. This comes on the heels of increased regional tensions and a rise in military capabilities.  

Expansion of Islamist Extremists: A 1,500 kilometer corridor is being conducted by Islamist extremists in an area along the Western Africa coast. This region is home to the center of Jihadist groups which have increased the unrest and insurgency in the region. Fatalities have risen as the violent groups continue to expand across the region.  

Deadly Floods Across Southern Asia: Drastic floods have been increasing which has resulted in major fatalities, displacement of individuals, and towns being destroyed. Extreme weather patterns have risen in the region which has included many strong rain storms. The storms are impacting the water supply and power systems throughout the Asia Pacific region. 

Regional Developments

Americas Key Developments

Regarding political reforms and economic shifts, Argentina’s new Congress opened special sessions on December 10 to advance sweeping structural reforms, while Mexico raised tariffs by up to 50% on imports from China and other non-free trade partners, a move that underscores tensions between economic sovereignty and global trade pressures.

In relation to diplomatic matters, Peru sealed a landmark defense deal with South Korea to acquire 195 tanks and armored vehicles, signaling a strategic pivot toward Asian partners. Bolivia fully restored diplomatic relations with Israel on November 9, reshaping  its foreign policy and strengthening Israel's regional presence. Caracas faced renewed friction with Washington after the U.S. Coast Guard seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic found itself entangled in a diplomatic dispute after Colombian President Gustavo Petro claimed that two Dominican fishermen were killed in U.S. bombings in the Caribbean. 

Regarding security challenges, Guatemala and Mexico launched joint military operations against organized crime along their shared border, in direct response to escalating violence. Similarly, Haiti welcomed a new deployment of the U.N.-backed multinational security force led by Kenya, reinforcing efforts against gang violence. 

On the social and technological side, El Salvador announced a nationwide AI-powered education program with xAI, positioning itself as a regional pioneer in integrating AI into public education. Meanwhile, Brazil confronted a steep decline in birth rate, raising long-term demographic concerns in an ever-aging continent, even as Brasília strengthened scientific cooperation with China despite pressures from the U.S. to discourage Latin American countries from deepening ties with Beijing.

Domestically, Honduras remained in electoral turmoil as the disputed November 30 presidential vote count fueled protests erupting in Tegucigalpa over technical failures and fraud allegations. Eventually, In Colombia, the ELN guerrilla group signaled a willingness to resume peace talks, leaving the door open for dialogue but also highlighting the fragility of peace processes.

Argentina: On December 10, The new Argentine Congress started special sessions with a broad reform agenda by President Milei, including the budget, tax and labor reforms, changes to the penal code, and new mining regulations.

Bolivia: On November 9, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Bolivia and Israel have fully resumed diplomatic relations, opening opportunities for cooperation in science, innovation, mutual benefits, and cultural diplomacy.

Brazil: On December 10, the IBGE (Insituto brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica) reported that Brazil had about 2.38 million births in 2024, down from 2.52 million in 2023, a 5.8% decrease and the largest decline in births in the past 20 years. China and Brazil started creating a shared lab for space tech, strengthening scientific cooperation as they advance a large telescope project in South America.

Colombia: The Colombian guerrilla group ELN expressed willingness to resume peace talks with the current government or the one elected in 2026, provided previous agreements are respected. Talks were suspended in January 2025 by President Gustavo Petro.

El Salvador: On December 11, El Salvador's government signed a deal with xAI to launch the country's first nationwide AI-powered education program. Using Grok, xAI's AI assistant, as a personal tutor, it will cover over 5,000 public schools.

Guatemala: On November 9, Mexico's Defense Secretary Ricardo Trevilla Trejo announced joint special operations between Mexican and Guatemalan armies to strengthen security and prevent violence after attacks by organized crime near their shared border.

Haiti:  On December 8, 230 Kenyan Police arrived in Haiti, marking the first foreign deployment since the U.N. Security Council approved the expansion of an existing gang-fighting force in Haiti. Kenya has become the largest personnel contributor and is joined by smaller forces from Jamaica, the Bahamas, Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Honduras: The vote count from the November 30 Presidential election has still not been accurately tallied, as hundreds of protesters have gathered into the streets of capital Tegucigalpa to demand clarity over the vote count. The election has been slowed by technical failures and unsubstantiated fraud claims. U.S. President Trump has intervened and put his support behind Nasry Asfura, stating that he might cut funding to Honduras if Asfura loses.

Mexico: On December 10, Mexico’s Congress approved tariff increases up to 50% on products imported from China and other countries that do not have free trade agreements with Mexico. It comes from negotiations with the Trump administration, which has accused China of using Mexico as a backdoor into the U.S. market. 

Peru: On December 9, South Korea signed a deal to send military equipment to the Peruvian army, where Peru will acquire 195 units of tanks and armored vehicles. This would be the largest South Korean defense export to Latin America and the first appearance of K2 tanks into the Latin American market.

Dominican Republic: Columbian President Petro has claimed that two bodies found on a beach in La Guajira were Dominican fishermen killed in what he claims were U.S. bombings in the Caribbean. Deaths of Dominican nationals could upset diplomatic relations and call for U.S. accountability.

Venezuela: On December 10, the U.S. Coast Guard seized control of a Venezuelan oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela carrying two million barrels of heavy crude oil and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil called the seizure blatant theft and an act of international piracy.

Europe & Eurasia Key Developments

Most countries seeking EU membership have experienced positive developments toward meeting EU accession criteria. Albanese Prime Minister Rama promoted development opportunities in the country, presenting a positive outlook for deeper economic cooperation with Europe. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with German Chancellor Merz and pledged to strengthen cooperation, thus furthering Armenia's strategic rapprochement with European countries. Montenegro has launched negotiations with the U.S. to strengthen bilateral economic ties. It represents an economic boon for Montenegro, which aims to finalize its EU accession talks by the end of 2026.

However, several have faced some headwinds due to political divisions. Bosnia and Herzegovina saw its meeting of the Council of Ministers related to EU accession negotiations canceled due to lack of political consensus. In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party has tabled a bill to expand the scope of anti-protest regulations. This move suggests that the Georgian government will maintain its uncompromising stance toward the enduring protests, making an end to the ongoing political crisis highly unlikely.

On security matters, European leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at a meeting in London, demonstrating their adamant stance against Ukraine's capitulation to Russia's demands. Romanian President Dan met with French President Macron to discuss increased defense cooperation and economic partnerships. Poland also secured over $16 billion in funding from the EU to build its first nuclear power plant and advance Europe's energy self-sufficiency goals, critical to weaning itself off Russian energy exports. In response to increased attention from European countries to their defense capacity, Belarusian President Lukashenko called for the update of Belarus’ defense measures.

Judicial affairs also progressed in multiple countries. Moldova has adopted a law aimed at protecting women against online abuse, showcasing the Moldovan government's commitment to staving off gender-based violence in the country. Kosovo has charged three individuals for the 2024 Ibar-Lepenac canal terrorist attack. Finally, a Serbian court convicted a member of convicted war criminal Croatian general Branimir Glavas's unit.

Albania: Prime Minister Rama met with possible investors and stakeholders to discuss the potential development opportunities that Albania offers. Rama stated that Albania is not a third world country and that reforms are practical. He emphasized that Albania is very ambitious for partnerships. 

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan met with his German counterparts in Germany to discuss increased cooperation and strengthened relations. Pashinyan and German Chancellor Merz both signed a joint agreement that will advance the strategic policies between the two countries.  

Belarus: President Lukashenko has called for modern defense systems following the military advancements from other Western countries. Lukashenko said updates are necessary for national security and the evolving global tensions especially with countries they share a border with. 

Bosnia & Herzegovina: A scheduled meeting on December 8, 2025 for the Council of Ministers was canceled following a political deadlock. This has put a significant strain on the path towards EU progress given it could have been the opportunity to elect a Chief Negotiator and adjust to EU regulations. 

Georgia: The ruling Georgian Dream party has put forth an initiative to expand on current anti-protest regulations that would incorporate pedestrian areas. The new law would require announcements of protests that would occur in those specific zones. Expanded criminal consequences will now happen.

Kosovo: Three individuals have officially been charged over the 2024 explosion at the Iber Lenpenc water plant. The government labeled the individuals as terrorists and have filed an indictment for charges related to terroism, and espionage. The suspects have not been identified. 

Montenegro: The U.S. and Montenegro have announced their intentions to strengthen bilateral relations especially in the economic sector. Both trade and investments are supposed to increase following the discussions. U.S. private sector investments will be the catalyst for job growth in Montenegro. 

Moldova: A new law has been implemented to take steps forward in the protection of women and girls from online abuse and stalking. This historical law will now be able to fully prosecute individuals guilty of these acts. Stalking and online abuse are now officially considered crimes in Moldova. 

Poland: The EU has provided around 16.5 billion dollars to allow Poland to establish its first nuclear power plant. The plant will be located along the Baltic sea coastline and is supposed to be completed in 2028. Support from the European Commission was necessary to begin production. 

Romania: President Dan took an official visit to France where he met with many of the Romanian communities in Paris. Dan also confirmed that a visit to Romania by French President Macron will occur in 2026. The two leaders discussed increased cooperation on defense and economic partnerships. 

Serbia: Krunoslav Fehir, who was a part of the unit led by Branimir Glavas (Croatian wartime general and suspect), has been convicted of being a key witness. Fehir was sentenced to six months in prison for his crimes but was later released given he had already served that time. 

Ukraine: President Zelenskyy met with leaders from France, England, and Germany to reiterate his support for European values and to express his gratitude for European support. The meeting resulted in the leaders calling for Ukraine's allies to continue their backing of Ukraine and to increase the pressure on Russia. 

Middle East & North Africa Key Developments

Across the MENA region, current and emerging geopolitical and security developments and updates continue to follow recent trends defined by contested borders, the durability of non-state actors, humanitarian stressors, and growing geopolitical fragmentation and tension. Control over border crossings and migration corridors remains a central pressure point for many nations within the region. Egypt’s role at Rafah, Israel’s settlement expansion in the West Bank, and Lebanon’s looming and unpredictable UNIFIL security arrangements all illustrate how border governance decisions are cascading into increased diplomatic tension, displacement risks, and security concerns that transcend well beyond national boundaries and even regional boundaries. 

Additionally, the entrenchment and capabilities of militias and hybrid actors continue to plague the region. Iran’s naval exercises project power at key maritime chokepoints, while Iraq’s reversal of measures targeting Hezbollah and the Houthis reflects domestic constraints in managing Iran-aligned or sponsored groups. Similar dynamics are visible in Yemen, where the UAE-backed STC territorial consolidation undermines the internationally recognized government, and in Libya, where armed groups tied to smuggling networks continue to shape and define governance and migration flows towards Europe. 

Aside from direct security concerns, humanitarian stress serves as both a consequence and an accelerant of multidimensional instability in the region. Flooding and displacement in Gaza, unresolved refugee pressures shaping Iraq’s diplomatic profile, and migration routes from Libya into Europe depict how local crises rapidly acquire regional and international implications. These pressures, which most nations in the region face, complicate the political atmosphere and increase the risk of spillover. 

Together, the region faces many shared risk factors that have produced conditions that heighten the likelihood of cascading instability across the states and sectors.

Egypt: Egypt is central in negotiations over the Rafah crossing, coordinating with Israel and the EU on plans to open it soon for Gazans, though Egypt insists on two-way movement and has opposed any exit-only plan that could risk displacement. Arab states have publicly criticized Israel’s one-way proposal. 

Iran: The IRGC held a two-day naval exercise in the Gulf / Straight of Hormuz, firing ballistic and cruise missiles, conducting drone strikes on simulated targets, and other “anti-terrorism” naval maneuvers; a show of force amid regional tensions and multinational military exercises. 

Iraq: Baghdad rescinded asset-freeze listings and terror designations on Hezbollah and the Houthis after political backlash, underscoring strain over Iran-aligned groups. Separately, former president Salih was named UN refugee chief, elevating Iraq’s diplomatic profile amid regional displacement.

Israel: The  Higher Planning Council approved 764 more houses in three Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, sparking backlash from the international community and pro-Palestinian groups. 

Lebanon: The UN is assessing post-UNIFIL border security options as the peacekeeping force prepares to withdraw by the end of 2026. Lebanon’s foreign minister also declined a visit from Tehran, amid delicate Hezbollah ties and increasing international pressure to disarm the group.

Libya: Libyan security forces killed Ahmed al-Dabbashi, a UN-sanctioned militia leader and smuggler, during a raid in Sabratha. Persistent threats from militias and instability continue to affect governance, and migration routes to Europe continue to be a persistent challenge. 

Palestinian Territories: A U.N. agency raised alarms this week as severe flooding has blocked emergency supplies and ongoing relief following heavy rains, affecting hundreds of thousands of displaced Gazans in unsafe shelters and camps.

Qatar: Qatar’s Energy Minister warned the EU he may suspend LNG supplies over the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive’s fines and regulatory pressures, signaling external energy policy friction with the EU that could affect regional gas markets and strategic supply chains.

Saudi Arabia: A joint Saudi–Emirati delegation arrived in Aden for talks after 32 security personnel were killed in clashes tied to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council in Yemen. Saudi–UAE tensions remain high, and risks to coalition stability in the conflict persist. 

Syria: Syrians marked one year since al-Assad’s overthrow, with celebrations in Damascus, even as sectarian violence and unresolved tensions persist. A Druze leader urged the U.S. to guarantee security for Syria’s Druze minority, reflecting ongoing instability and minority-rights concerns.

Tunisia: Civil unrest continues as Tunisians stage nationwide protests against President Saied’s political crackdown, demanding the release of political detainees and civil freedoms. Opposition leader Abir Moussi was sentenced to 12 years, underscoring political repression and fragile governance

Yemen: The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, a major separatist group, has claimed broad control over southern governorates, including Aden. Marking a major territorial shift that undermines the internationally recognised government and risks renewing civil war dynamics and straining anti-Houthi unity.

Sub-Saharan Africa Key Developments

Major issues in Sub-Saharan Africa within the week focused on peace and security and its geopolitical ramifications. Last Sunday’s attempted coup in Benin was the second military coup to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa in less than a month. It should be recalled that an earlier coup in Guinea-Bissau successfully overthrew the government of President Sissoko Embalo. However, unlike the coup in Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, and several West African countries operating under an ECOWAS force intervened militarily in Benin to reverse the coup. While the Nigerian-led ECOWAS intervention in Benin could be seen as a positive step in ending the recent coup wave, especially in the sub-region, the intervention has nonetheless raised several issues, including the inconsistent response to coups. Meanwhile, speculations surrounding the 11 Nigerian soldiers on board a Nigerian Air Force C-120 military plane forced to land in Burkina Faso, as well as the French government’s declarations that it provided intelligence on the coup in Benin, suggest a geopolitical dimension to the Benin crisis. 

In geopolitics, Nigeria’s government has continued to diversify its security sector partnerships by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The move by the Nigerian authorities comes at a vital interval, given the country’s current struggles to contain a worsening security situation characterised by mass kidnapping. More on this topic to be published soon with our upcoming SpecialREPORT on Nigeria. 

Also, Washington and the African Union have called for international collaboration, upholding the recent peace agreements signed by the Rwanda and the DRC’s governments respectively, including the Doha Agreements with the M23 rebels. This comes following a ceasefire violation and intense fighting in South Kivu.  Additionally, the South African authorities, through a note verbale sent to G20 embassies and consulates on December 10, had asked fellow G20 states to object to South Africa’s non-inclusion/invitation for the upcoming G20 events under the US G20 presidency.  

Cameroon: Jailed Anglophone separatist leaders, Ayuk Tabe and co, are scheduled to appear before the Supreme Court on December 18. Recall that the leaders are currently serving a life imprisonment sentence, following a 2019 Mfoundi High Court ruling.  

Ghana: Ghana’s Foreign Affairs Ministry on December 10 says that the country has deported three Israeli nationals in a reciprocal move following the earlier repatriation of three Ghanians from Israel. The Ministry also noted that the Ghanaian and Israeli authorities have engaged in talks to find an amicable solution. 

Benin: Authorities in Benin have detained several soldiers connected with last week’s failed coup attempt, while the main leader is reportedly seeking refuge in Togo. The government also revealed that there were several casualties from both sides following the attempted coup. 

Kenya: A High Court in Kenya has suspended the implementation of the $2.5 billion Cooperation Framework on health between the US and the Kenyan government, signed last month in Washington. The court based in ruling on data privacy concerns, although the Kenyan government has said that it will challenge the ruling. 

Mozambique: A Human Rights Watch report has raised an alarm about the dire conditions of displaced Mozambicans. The report noted that more than 100,000 Mozambicans have been forced to flee their homes following the resurgence of attacks by Islamic jihadists in Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces. 

Nigeria: Nigeria has signed a 5-year defence and military cooperation deal with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The agreement will cover a strategic collaboration across security, military training, intelligence sharing, defence production, and joint operations for sustainable security development. 

Somalia: The United Nations has officially removed Somalia from the list of countries recruiting and using child soldiers.  

South Africa: South Africa's Foreign Affairs Minister has said that the country has held consultations with other G20 members following the US’s sidelining of the country for the 2026 G20. However, the minister maintains that South Africa will not pressure fellow G20 members into sidelining events under the current US G20 Presidency. 

South Sudan: Three South Sudanese soldiers have been killed following a drone strike by the Sudanese military near a Sudanese oilfield. Meanwhile, several Sudanese soldiers have recently fled the escalating violence into the neighboring South Sudan. 

Ethiopia: The US had ended the Temporary Protected Status for Ethiopian nationals, citing an improved security situation in the country. 

Uganda: Uganda has reportedly become Africa’s largest coffee producer after earning a total of $2.4 million from 8.4 million bags of coffee exports between October 2024 and October 2025. 

DR Congo: DRC’s President has accused Rwanda of violating a recent peace agreement signed in Washington between Kinshasa and Kigali over the conflict in eastern DRC. In a statement by the African Union on December 11, the AU Chairperson condemned recent clashes in South Kivu and called for the respect of recent bilateral peace agreements.  

Asia-Pacific Key Developments

The Asia-Pacific region experienced a volatile week marked by converging security, political, and humanitarian pressures, underscoring shared structural vulnerabilities and rising cross-border implications. Security incidents dominated headlines, from the terrorist attack at Australia’s Bondi Beach targeting a Jewish event to renewed violence along the Thailand–Cambodia border and North Korea’s rare admission of troop deployment in support of Russia. Together, these incidents reflect a broader regional pattern of escalating asymmetric threats, militarisation, and spillover risks driven by unresolved geopolitical rivalries.

South Asia continues to face intertwined political and security stress. Bangladesh’s announcement of parliamentary elections following the 2024 uprising signals a tentative return to democratic processes, yet exclusionary politics and delayed reforms risk renewed instability. India’s engagement with the United States over punitive tariffs highlights the economic consequences of geopolitical alignment, particularly regarding energy security and continued reliance on Russian oil. Pakistan, meanwhile, faces reputational scrutiny of its leadership amid wider regional volatility and persistent migrant pressures affecting neighbouring Afghanistan.

Forced population movements remain a critical cross-border challenge. Pakistan and Iran’s accelerated deportations of Afghan migrants are straining Afghanistan’s already fragile economy and limited public services, raising concerns over humanitarian deterioration and secondary displacement. At the same time, Sri Lanka’s Cyclone Ditwah disaster and Indonesia’s deadly floods in Sumatra underline the region’s growing exposure to climate-driven emergencies, overwhelming disaster response capacity, and increasing reliance on international assistance.

In Southeast and East Asia, maritime and military postures are hardening. Philippines–Taiwan coast guard engagement reflects shared concerns over Chinese maritime coercion, while Thailand–Cambodia clashes and North Korea’s missile activity highlight persistent flashpoints with escalation potential.

Overall, the week’s developments reveal a region increasingly shaped by overlapping crises, security shocks, political transitions, forced migration, climate disasters, and great-power competition, reinforcing the need for sustained monitoring, cross-border coordination, and early-warning risk assessment across the Asia-Pacific.

Afghanistan: On 13 December, Pakistan deported about 4,800 Afghan migrants, and Iran returned over 1,100 others, according to the Taliban refugee commission. Aid agencies warn that mass returns are straining Afghanistan’s fragile economy and public services.

Australia: On 12 December, at least 11 people were killed, and 29 were injured after two gunmen opened fire at Bondi Beach, targeting a Jewish Hanukkah event. Authorities designated the shooting a terrorist incident; one suspect was killed and another critically wounded.

Bangladesh: On 11 December, Bangladesh announced parliamentary elections for 12 February 2026, alongside a referendum on political reforms, marking the first national vote since Sheikh Hasina’s removal following the 2024 student-led uprising.

India: On 11 December, PM Narendra Modi spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump as India seeks relief from 50% U.S. tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases. Talks continue amid falling Indian exports and ongoing trade negotiations.

Indonesia: On 14 December, Aceh’s government invited UNDP and UNICEF to support post-flood and landslide recovery. BNPB reported over 1,000 deaths across Sumatra, with Aceh hardest hit at 415 fatalities, prompting international assistance outreach.

Myanmar: On 11 December, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing admitted voter lists for upcoming elections would not be fully accurate, citing security limits and errors. Polls begin 28 Dec despite voting being barred in 56 townships and widespread rejection of the process.

North Korea: On 13 December, Kim Jong-un admitted deploying North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region to clear landmines, confirming support for Moscow in Ukraine. The 120-day mission killed nine soldiers, later posthumously honoured, marking a rare public admission.

Pakistan: On 12 December, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif trended on social media after a viral video allegedly showed him entering a closed-door Putin–Erdogan meeting in Ashgabat, sparking widespread trolling and renewed scrutiny of past viral moments.

Philippines: On 12 December, Taiwan Coast Guard attaché Andrew Yen visited the Philippine Coast Guard to explore maritime security cooperation, training, and capacity building, amid shared concerns over Chinese coast guard pressure in strategic waters.

Sri Lanka: Cyclone Ditwah caused widespread devastation across Sri Lanka, as reported on 12 December, killing over 600 people and affecting more than 2 million. More than 4,000 houses were destroyed, and 60,000 were damaged, with severe nationwide infrastructure losses.

Taiwan: On 13 December, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense proposed stricter conscription exemption rules, raising the obesity threshold to BMI 45, removing flat-feet exemptions, and tightening medical reviews to curb draft-dodging and strengthen manpower.

Thailand: 12 December 2025: Cambodia accused Thailand of launching new airstrikes along their disputed border after fighting escalated this week. Around two dozen people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced, with both sides accusing each other of violating sovereignty.

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