GlobalPULSE: 20 JAN 2025

Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Haiti's humanitarian crisis deepens as gang violence displaces over one million people, prompting calls for an expanded international mission and enhanced humanitarian aid.
• Energy weaponization by Russia exacerbates the crises in Ukraine and Moldova, as winter energy shortages highlight vulnerabilities in Europe and Eurasia.
• Progress towards a Gaza ceasefire deal raises hopes for reduced hostilities, yet disagreements on implementation could hinder long-term stability.
• Boko Haram’s resurgence in Nigeria, with a massacre in Borno State, underscores ongoing threats from extremist groups in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Increased maritime security tensions in Asia-Pacific, with North Korea’s missile launches and Chinese actions in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea prompting regional responses.
• Economic challenges in Latin America, including Argentina’s energy crisis and Bolivia’s inflation-fueled protests, strain governance and economic resilience.
• Escalating diplomatic tensions between the United States and countries in the Americas as Trump’s immigration and foreign policies create uncertainty for trade and remittance-dependent economies.
• Renewed violence in Colombia, as clashes between ELN and FARC dissidents threaten peace efforts and destabilize the region further.

In the Americas, humanitarian crises dominate headlines, with Haiti's gang violence displacing over one million people and raising concerns about the effectiveness of international missions. Colombia's Catatumbo region experiences escalating clashes between the ELN and FARC dissidents. In Europe and Eurasia, energy insecurity remains critical as Russia leverages its resources to exert political pressure on Ukraine, Moldova, and Serbia, complicating winter recovery efforts. Geopolitical alliances shift, with Armenia strengthening ties with the U.S. and Albania entering a renewable energy partnership with Italy and the UAE. 

In the Middle East and North Africa, progress toward a ceasefire deal between Israel and Gaza brings cautious optimism, though tensions persist over terms. Syria’s reconstruction efforts gain traction as Turkey steps in to support security and rebuilding efforts. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conflict and political unrest persist. Boko Haram’s violent resurgence in Nigeria claims dozens of lives, while Cameroon and Guinea face internal displacement and governance challenges. In the Asia-Pacific, maritime and territorial disputes escalate as China’s actions in the South China Sea prompt responses from the Philippines, Taiwan, and India. North Korea’s missile launches raise regional security concerns, while countries like Indonesia and Sri Lanka deepen trade and economic ties. Internal crises persist in Myanmar, and Pakistan, highlighting governance and security vulnerabilities across the region.