Report Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns:

• Ukraine war risk stays elevated (Europe/Eurasia): Russian drone strikes in Sumy/Chernihiv and limited traction for a line-of-contact ceasefire sustain threat to EU security posture, energy costs, and logistics.
• Western Balkans fragility: RS referendum push in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo–Serbia deadlock, and Montenegro’s slow-but-steady EU track expose divergence between integration efforts and nationalist pressures.
• Governance stress tests (Caucasus & neighborhood): Armenia’s protests after a high-profile arrest and Moldova’s parliamentary reset highlight volatile politics ahead of 2026 ballots.
• MENA escalation ladder: Israel–Hezbollah exchanges after a senior commander’s killing, ICJ directives on Gaza, and Knesset moves on West Bank jurisdiction elevate miscalculation and legal-political risk.
• Sanctions & macro squeeze (Iran): Reimposed U.N. measures, currency slide, and >40% inflation threaten regional oil flows and price stability.
• Energy security & industrial policy (Gulf/EU): Qatar’s leverage over EU LNG rules and Saudi Arabia’s $1.6B AlUla investment drive illustrate resource/security trade-offs and diversification bets.
• State capacity vs. unrest (North Africa): Tunisia’s UGTT-led strikes and EU scrutiny of Libya’s maritime forces raise migration, SAR, and human-rights exposure along Mediterranean routes.
• Great-power & supply-chain blocs (Asia-Pacific): U.S.–Australia $3B critical-minerals pact and U.S.–India tariff calibration tighten tech-minerals ecosystems and compliance demands.
• Border management flashpoints (AfPak/SE Asia): Chaman partial reopening and Thai evacuations from Myanmar show persistent disruption risks to overland trade and trafficking exposure.
• Americas security realignments: Argentina’s FBI accords amid cabinet churn; Colombia–U.S. trade frictions alongside Uribe’s legal reset; Bolivia’s post-MAS pivot away from ALBA signal divergent alignments.
• Public order & health shocks (Americas): Peru’s capital-area emergency, Ecuador’s unresolved social conflict, Haiti’s cholera uptick, and El Salvador’s high dengue fatality rate pose near-term operational risks.
• Climate & geohazard disruptions (multi-region): Quakes in Dominican Republic/Albania/Guatemala, Guatemala’s volcanic activity, and Brazil’s Foz do Amazonas exploration debate highlight infrastructure stress and ESG scrutiny.