Sentinel Summary

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

This week's global security environment is characterized by three significant developments requiring organizational attention: the resolution of conventional conflict in Southeast Asia through a Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire, intensifying great-power competition over Taiwan marked by Chinese military exercises, and expanded U.S. counterterrorism operations in Africa including the first American airstrike in Nigeria.

Key Global Concerns

Americas. Honduras resolved its contested presidential election on December 24 when the National Electoral Council declared National Party candidate Nasry Asfura the winner. The ELN's December 18 drone and mortar attack on a Colombian military base killed 6-7 soldiers, prompting emergency military procurement. Haiti's gang violence expanded beyond Port-au-Prince to the Northwest Region, with over 5,600 killed in 2024 and 1.4 million displaced.

Europe-Eurasia. Kosovo's December 28 snap elections delivered a decisive victory for Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vetëvendosje party with approximately 50% of votes, ending a 10-month political deadlock. Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv on December 27 with approximately 500 drones and 40 missiles, leaving one-third of the city without heat ahead of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. Belarus's December 13 release of 123 political prisoners was followed by U.S. sanctions relief on potash exports, though over 1,100 political prisoners remain in custody.

Middle East and North Africa. Syria's transitional government faced its first major sectarian attack when explosives detonated inside a mosque in Homs on December 26, killing 8 and injuring 18. Iran's rial collapsed to a historic low of 1,445,000 per dollar, triggering bazaar protests across Tehran. Gaza Phase 2 negotiations advanced with talks in Miami, with Netanyahu scheduled to meet Trump on December 29. Yemen's Southern Transitional Council now controls 90-95% of populated areas in former South Yemen following its December offensive.

Sub-Saharan Africa. The DRC-Rwanda peace deal appears near collapse as M23 rebels continue advances despite the December 4 Washington accord. The U.S. conducted its first military strike in Nigeria on December 25, targeting ISIS-affiliated positions in Sokoto State. Guinea held its first elections since the 2021 coup on December 28, with military leader General Doumbouya expected to win amid opposition boycotts.

Asia-Pacific. Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire on December 27, ending 20 days of renewed fighting that killed over 100 people and displaced over 500,000. China launched "Justice Mission 2025" military exercises encircling Taiwan on December 29, mobilizing army, navy, air force, and rocket force units. Myanmar held the first phase of junta-organized elections on December 28 amid widespread condemnation as a "sham."

Operational Considerations

The New Year period presents standard holiday-period constraints with reduced government responsiveness and skeleton staffing across partner organizations. Multiple cities including Paris, Tokyo, and Belgrade have cancelled New Year's Eve celebrations over security concerns following the 2024 Magdeburg attack. Organizations with personnel traveling internationally should confirm contingency contacts and verify emergency communication protocols through January 2.

Strategic Overview