Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns

US-Iran Tensions Grow Amid Military Posturing

Tensions between the United States and Iran intensified this week as diplomacy stalled and both sides hardened positions. Iran continued fortifying nuclear facilities and conducted live-fire naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily restricting maritime movement. Iranian leadership publicly rejected additional concessions beyond the nuclear file.

Washington increased its regional military posture, reinforcing assets in the Middle East amid concerns of miscalculation. The proximity of Iranian naval drills to US deployments creates a potential flashpoint in one of the world's most strategic energy chokepoints, with implications for global oil markets and maritime security.

Mexico: CJNG Leader Killed, Nationwide Retaliation Underway

Mexican military forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a joint operation with U.S. intelligence support in Tapalpa, Jalisco on February 22. The operation triggered the most significant cartel retaliation event in recent years, with at least 26 killed including 17 security force personnel. CJNG launched coordinated violence across 13 to 20 states, including burning vehicle roadblocks, attacks on Banco del Bienestar branches, armed confrontations, and a prison riot in Puerto Vallarta. Airlines cancelled flights to Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, schools closed in Jalisco and Guanajuato, and the U.S. Embassy issued shelter-in-place warnings across five states. With no clear successor and the Oseguera family network largely dismantled through arrests and extraditions, CJNG faces probable internal fragmentation that may escalate violence across western and central Mexico in the weeks ahead. Guadalajara is scheduled to host four FIFA World Cup matches beginning in June.

RileySENTINEL issued a FLASH report on this event: El Mencho Killed; Nationwide Retaliation Underway

Hungary Threatens to Veto €90 Billion EU Loan to Ukraine

Hungary signaled it may block the EU's planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine unless Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline resume. The move places significant strain on EU unity at a critical moment for Kyiv's financial and military sustainability.