Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

Key Global Concerns

U.S. and Israel Attack Iran; Iran Begins Retaliatory Response

On Saturday, the United States and Israel conducted a coordinated attack on Iran. The strikes targeted various regime strongholds in Tehran and other cities around the country. Iranian officials announced the death of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Sunday morning. His death ends a 36-year rule over Iran. President Trump urged the Iranian citizens to take charge of the government, though no clear plan appears visible. 

Iran sent out retaliatory strikes across the region on Saturday. The countries hit in retaliation include Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the U.A.E. Many of the sites in the countries were U.S. military facilities. 

Israel Carried Out Strikes in Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza

Israel sent targeted strikes at Iraq and Lebanon in the lead up to its joint attack with the U.S. on Iran. The attack in Iraq hit a site affiliated with the pro-Iranian. The ones in Lebanon targeted military compounds belonging to Hezbollah. Israel appears to have been acting preemptively to mitigate any potential harm following the attack on Iran.

Poland Considering a Children Social Media Ban

Poland is considering a law that would ban the use of social media in persons below the age of 15 years old. If the law passes, it will take effect in 2027. Poland is not the only European country considering similar legislation, including Denmark, Greece, France, Spain, and Britain. Australia is the only country so far that bans minors on social media. 

Russia Breaches Romanian Airspace

Romania, a member of NATO and the European Union had its airspace breached by a Russian drone on Thursday, February 26. The incursion happened during one of Russia’s strikes on Ukraine and is the second breach recently. Romania shares a border with Ukraine and has experienced similar incidents throughout the duration of Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

IMF Loan Approved for Ukraine

Ukraine will receive a four-year loan from the IMF to help support the country during its continuing war with Russia. The $8.1 billion loan will help support Ukraine’s government as it continues to function in a wartime setting and is in need of money to keep running successfully. The EU agreed late 2025 to extend a loan of up to 90 billion euros to Ukraine for the purpose of surviving the war. Hungary is currently blocking the funding due to concerns that Ukraine is purposefully taking a long time to repair the Druzhba pipeline. The Druzhba channels oil from Russia to Hungary, which Ukraine protests.

New Report Shows Militant Attack Increases in Niger, Benin, Nigeria

A report published this week by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) shows that militant attacks have increased over the past two years in Niger, Benin, and Nigeria. The attacks typically occur around the border zones of the countries and are linked to groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The report indicates a 90% increase of these attacks during the course of 2025. The United States is engaged in security efforts in the region, including conducting airstrikes in Nigeria and training security personnel.

Pakistan Declares Open War Against Afghanistan

Tensions escalated between Pakistan and Afghanistan this week with the former declaring “open war” against the latter. Both countries conducted strikes against the other this week, and both declared their own strike to be retaliatory. Pakistan targeted the base of a Taliban leader and Afghanistan hit sites in Islamabad and Abbottabad. 

Tensions have been growing for months after Pakistan closed its border with Afghanistan in October 2025 in protest of its claim that Afghanistan is harboring Tehrik-e-Taliban, a militant Pakistani group.

RileySENTINEL issued a FLASH report on this event: US-Israel Strikes on Iran; Khamenei Killed. ➡ IRAN FLASH Report

We have also activated a Live Tracker page. Managed by our GSAT and persistently updated with new data and insights, this is a dynamic FLASH tracker resource for stakeholders to reference. ➡ FLASH TRACKER PAGE