Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 15 JAN 2026
Report Focus Location: MENA - Iran
Authors: NB, DF, CB
Contributors: GSAT
GSAT Lead: MF
RileySENTINEL provides timely intelligence and in-depth analysis for complex environments. Our global team blends international reach with local expertise, offering unique insights to navigate challenging operations. For custom insights or urgent consultations, contact us here.
Bottom Line Up Front
Iran's internal security situation has deteriorated rapidly since late December 2025. Tehran imposed a near-total telecommunications blackout beginning January 8 to disrupt coordination as protests spread to all 31 provinces. Due to the blackout, casualty verification remains extremely difficult. Iran Human Rights, a Norway-based monitoring organization, reported at least 3,428 protesters killed as an "absolute minimum," while CBS News sources inside Iran suggest the figure may exceed 12,000.
An Iranian official told Reuters that approximately 2,000-3,000 have died, attributing deaths to "terrorists." More than 10,700 individuals have been detained according to HRANA. The regime continues framing unrest as foreign-instigated while the U.S. has publicly indicated military options remain under consideration, though initial de-escalation signals emerged on January 15.
Remaining content is for members only.
Please become a free member to unlock this article and more content.
Subscribe NowAuthors
Nolan Byrd, Regional Security Analyst at Riley Risk, provides security analysis, and reporting for the RileySENTINEL platform, delivering insights for complex environments.
GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
Dr. Marko Filijovic is a Special Advisor for Riley Risk with expertise in geopolitical risk, security intelligence, artic defense and threat analysis. He holds a PhD in Security Studies from the University Of Beograd.
Chester Barnett, Regional Security Analyst at Riley Risk, provides security analysis, and reporting for the RileySENTINEL platform, delivering insights for complex environments.