Key Findings

• The Global Terrorist Index (GTI) has consecutively ranked Central Sahel as the epicentre of terrorism, with Burkina Faso ranking as the most terrorist affected country globally, while Mali and Niger occupy the fourth and fifth positions, respectively, in the latest ranking.
• In 2024, 13 out of the 20 deadliest terrorist attacks occurred in Central Sahel, with Burkina Faso recording 9 incidents, Niger 3, and Mali 1. Overall, a total of 413 attacks were recorded in the sub-region, causing an estimated 3,066 deaths.
• Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) are the two dominant jihadist groups in the Central Sahel. JNIM alone accounted for 1,454 deaths from 146 attacks in 2024, making it the second deadliest terrorist group globally in 2024 and the deadliest in Africa.
• Over 400 terrorist attacks have already been recorded in the Central Sahel in 2025, resulting in more than 2870 deaths. Burkina Faso remains the most affected country.
• Weak state structures in the three Confederation of Sahel States: Mali, Niger; the dissolution of existing counterinsurgency security architectures such as MINUSMA and the GS5 Sahel, shifting geopolitical partnerships, and the fragile security situation across the neighboring Lake Chad Basin and the Coast of West Africa are major factors amplifying the security situation in the Sahel. 
• Central Sahelian jihadist groups are incorporating new communication technologies such as Starlink and the use of sophisticated weapons, including drones, to increase their operational capabilities.
• JNIM and ISGS continue to extend their attacks towards coastal West African states such as Togo and Benin. 

Summary

The jihadist landscape in the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger) has come into a new phase in 2025, with al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) founding itself as the region’s central armed group. With an estimated 6,000 fighters, JNIM has expanded its operations across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. No longer limited to hit-and-run insurgency, the group is now seizing towns, deploying drones, using anti-aircraft weapons, and embedding itself in local governance. In many areas under its control, JNIM operates as a proto-state by establishing courts, schools, and informal administrative structures. Its rise has been fueled by local grievances, particularly abuses committed by state-aligned militias that have alienated ethnic groups such as the Fulani, enabling jihadists to position themselves as protectors and providers. Meanwhile, Islamic State affiliates, mainly the Islamic State Sahel Province  (ISSP) in the Greater Sahara, continue to exercise influence, mainly along the Niger-Nigeria border, increasing competition and violence. While some progress has been made in terms of recovering territories previously held by jihadists, terrorist attacks have surged. The incumbent military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have attempted to counter this threat by forming the Confederation of Sahelian States and increasing security cooperation with Russia; however, security remains highly fragile.