Key Findings

• The 2015-2016 migration crisis saw a steep increase in illegal migration to Europe, challenging the bloc to develop a common migration approach.
• This crisis led to an immediate concern regarding the economic and security consequences, and the anti-refugee opinion increased significantly in many countries
• Political parties with a focus on more restrictive migration policies and the securitization of migration have won many elections or at least gained a strikingly new share of voters.
• Mainstream parties leading the governments of European countries have taken a tougher stance on migration in recent years, and are willing to link foreign aid with the cooperation of third countries on returns and readmissions.
• The New Pact reforms, adopted in April 2024, formalize this new approach to use foreign aid and other policy tools as a positive or negative lever in seeking cooperation to transfer asylum seekers to their countries of origin or to ‘safe third countries’
• European Official Development Assistance (ODA) is increasingly tied to migration outcomes, creating funding volatility for non-migration programs and accelerating localization through national partners.
• Cooperation with key origin and transit states is becoming explicitly transactional, with phased disbursements linked to identification rates, travel-document issuance timelines, acceptance of returnees, and compliance with rights safeguards.
• Implementation risks are pushing the EU to pair conditionality with targeted legal pathways, talent partnerships, and limited trade facilitation to sustain cooperation.

Summary

The recent increase in immigration to Europe following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022 has led to worries that Europe will face similar challenges as during the migration crisis of 2015 and 2016. Political parties prioritizing migration policy and advocating cuts to foreign aid — aiming to address debt, ease pressure on welfare systems, and fund higher defense budgets — have gained momentum, winning recent elections in several countries and in the European Parliament. This development has put European countries and mainstream parties under pressure to take a tougher stance on migration, securitize their migration policies, and link foreign aid more directly with national interests.

It remains uncertain whether Europe will establish a common approach that is accepted by all countries, as there are already differing opinions regarding the conditionality of foreign aid and migration policy among various nations. NGOs need to prepare for adjustments in their operations along traditional routes and may also need to initiate projects in other regions impacted by the New Pact. They should anticipate increased funding volatility, as more resources will be redirected towards border management and the repatriation of returnees.

For more insights concerning the impact of increased defense spending on foreign aid budgets, kindly refer to our previous report here.