MENA RegionalPULSE: 15 JUL 2025

Report Summary

• Gaza conflict remains unresolved, as Israeli leadership delays ceasefire progress ahead of the Knesset recess. Heavy airstrikes, high civilian casualties, and stalled hostage negotiations signal a prolonged crisis with growing humanitarian fallout.
• Israel proposes a controversial "humanitarian city" in Rafah, intended to house 600,000 Gazans, raising concerns over feasibility, security, and displacement implications.
• Iran’s nuclear program setback by Israeli strikes, with assessments suggesting a two-year delay. However, Iran’s new law restricting IAEA inspections adds uncertainty to future diplomacy.Houthis escalate maritime threats, targeting Israeli-linked vessels and causing fatalities—the first Red Sea shipping deaths since June 2024—prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes.
• Hezbollah-Israel tensions intensify, with cross-border skirmishes and Israeli ground incursions into southern Lebanon, while Lebanese leadership expresses openness to peace without normalization.
• Sweida unrest in Syria reveals persistent fault lines, with deadly clashes between Druze and Bedouin communities raising alarms about localized instability.
• UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria, signaling a cautious return of Western engagement and committing £94.5 million in aid, while the U.S. hints at Syria joining the Abraham Accords.
• PKK disarmament in Iraq marks a turning point, opening possibilities for Turkish-Kurdish reconciliation and regional stabilization, particularly in northern Syria.
• New Türkiye-Kuwait trade corridor via Iraq operational, slashing transit times from 45 to 4 days and improving regional trade resilience.
• Security risks remain high in Israel and Iraq, driven by increased smuggling, militant activity, and aggressive anti-drug campaigns involving mass arrests and executions.
• Diplomatic paralysis persists in nuclear talks with Iran, with uranium enrichment claims clashing with U.S. red lines and Iranian hardliners tightening oversight on inspections.