Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 09 DEC 2025
Report Focus Location: MENA
Authors: MF
Contributors: GSAT, CB
GSAT Lead: MF
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Executive Summary
The Middle East and North Africa region enters mid-December 2025 under sustained pressure from the Gaza conflict's second phase negotiations, fragile ceasefire frameworks in Lebanon, and accelerating fragmentation in Yemen.
December 8, 2025 marked the first anniversary of President Bashar al-Assad's overthrow. President Ahmad al-Sharaa presided over military parades in Damascus, pledging national unity and reconstruction. The UNHCR reported that over 3 million displaced Syrians have returned since December 2024, calling it "a once-in-a-generation chance to help end one of the world's worst humanitarian crises." However, the Mines Advisory Group reported 590 killed by landmines since Assad's fall, including 167 children. Syria is projected to have the highest global landmine casualty rate in 2025. Reconstruction is estimated by the World Bank at $216 billion, but promised Gulf investment is largely missing, and the $1.5 billion UNHCR 2025 appeal is only 33% funded.
Gaza ceasefire negotiations have reached a critical juncture as Phase 2 of Trump's 20-point plan approaches. IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir stated on December 7 that the "yellow line" demarcating Israeli-controlled territory, now encompassing 53% of Gaza, represents "a new border line." NBC News reports over 370 Palestinians killed since the October ceasefire began, with the total death toll exceeding 70,000. Hamas official Bassem Naim signaled openness to discussing "freezing or storing" weapons but rejected international force mandates for disarmament.
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GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
Dr. Marko Filijovic is a Special Advisor for Riley Risk with expertise in geopolitical risk, security intelligence, artic defense and threat analysis. He holds a PhD in Security Studies from the University Of Beograd.
