Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 03 FEB 2026
Report Focus Location: MENA
Authors: GSAT
Contributors: GSAT
GSAT Lead: MF
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Executive Summary
The MENA region enters February 2026 in a state of acute strategic volatility centered on US military buildup targeting Iran and Syria's complex political transition under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The Trump administration deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group with additional THAAD and Patriot batteries across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while Iran conducted simultaneous military exercises in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that any US strike would trigger regional war, while the UN invoked Article 2(4) of the Charter prohibiting use of force. Syria's transitional government faces mounting challenges as Sharaa's January 6 offensive against Kurdish-held territory in the northeast threatens to unravel the fragile March 2025 SDF integration agreement. The emergence of a "Sovereignty Bloc" comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan directly challenges UAE influence across Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen, fundamentally restructuring regional power dynamics beyond traditional Sunni-Shi'a divisions.
Regional economic resilience demonstrated through 3.2 percent growth in 2025 masks persistent vulnerabilities, with the IMF projecting 3.7 percent growth for 2026 contingent on oil production stability and reform implementation. Israel's ongoing operations in Gaza and Lebanon under indefinite "strategic targeting" authority continue despite the November 2024 ceasefire, while the EU committed €620 million in assistance to Syria for 2026-2027 conditional on governance progress.
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GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
Dr. Marko Filijovic is a Special Advisor for Riley Risk with expertise in geopolitical risk, security intelligence, artic defense and threat analysis. He holds a PhD in Security Studies from the University Of Beograd.
