Executive Summary

The US-Israel war on Iran, now in its twelfth day, has restructured the MENA security environment at a speed and scale not seen since 2003. The joint campaign launched on February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior military leadership within hours. Iran's retaliatory strikes have since hit all six GCC states, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, damaging energy infrastructure in every Gulf capital, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, and pushing oil prices above $120 per barrel. On March 11, the IEA approved a record release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves in an effort to stabilize global markets. The conflict shows little signs of a negotiated resolution: Iran's parliament speaker stated publicly that Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire, and the appointment of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader signals continuity rather than moderation.

The war's gravitational pull has collapsed or frozen nearly every other diplomatic process in the region. The Gaza ceasefire, brokered in October 2025, is functionally suspended. Phase 2 negotiations halted the day the Iran campaign began, Israel closed the Rafah crossing indefinitely, and only 200 to 250 aid trucks enter daily against a UN requirement of 600. The cumulative death toll in Gaza since October 2023 now exceeds 72,000, with 77% of the population facing severe food insecurity. In the West Bank, settler violence increased approximately 25% during the war's first week, killing at least eight Palestinians. Al-Aqsa Mosque has been closed for 12 consecutive days during Ramadan, and checkpoints have increased from roughly 800 to 1,100.