Executive Summary

A joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched on February 28 and a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 define the current MENA security environment. Negotiations in Islamabad between VP JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf failed to produce a permanent deal. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, and Iran threatened on April 15 to extend disruption to the Red Sea via Houthi allies. Core disputes over nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz control, and Lebanon remain unresolved.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil and LNG transits, remains contested. Iran imposed a near-total blockade from March 2, and the US counter-blockaded Iranian ports on April 13. A Bahrain-sponsored UNSC resolution to authorize defensive shipping missions was vetoed by Russia and China. The simultaneous Houthi threat to Bab el-Mandeb creates a dual-chokepoint risk for global energy flows.

Gulf Cooperation Council states sustained extensive infrastructure damage despite non-combatant status. The UAE intercepted Iranian missiles and drones on April 8; Kuwait suffered damage to oil facilities and desalination plants; Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was struck. Gulf officials expressed a fundamental breakdown in trust toward both the US security partnership and the multilateral framework.

Iraq faces convergent crises: a political vacuum following the November 2025 elections, economic collapse with oil production in Basra falling over 70%, and a security emergency as the country became a secondary battleground in the US-Iran war. Government funds are projected to last only until mid-May.

Lebanon has absorbed over 2,000 deaths, more than 6,500 wounded, and over one million displaced since March 2. Israeli operations continued through the ceasefire period. The US mediated the first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14, but Hezbollah rejected participation and Iran linked any agreement to the broader US-Iran negotiations.

Sudan marks three years of civil war on April 15, with at least 59,000 killed and at least 13 million displaced, making it the world's largest displacement crisis. Nearly 34 million Sudanese require humanitarian assistance. The conflict is heavily internationalized and compounded by Middle East war supply chain disruptions that drove fuel prices up over 24%.

The IMF slashed MENA growth to 1.1% for 2026, down 2.8 percentage points from January. Iran's economy is projected to contract 6.1%; Iraq by 6.8%; Qatar by 8.6%. Global inflation is projected at 4.4%. The IMF warned a prolonged conflict could reduce global growth to 2%. Organizations operating across MENA should plan for sustained disruption through at least Q3 2026.