Key Findings

• Moldova will hold parliamentary elections on September 28, a pivotal vote for its EU accession process and for countering Russian influence in the Balkans.
• The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has yet to secure a majority amid 21 competing candidates and increasing pro-Russian interference.
• Pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor has offered $3,000 per month to Moldovans to join protests; despite his Sor party being banned, it remains central to interference efforts.
• Russia’s “Matryoshka campaign” has spread 39 fabricated stories in three months and used AI deepfakes on TikTok to target President Sandu and fabricate protest videos.
• PAS currently holds 63 out of the 101 seats in Parliament, but it seems unlikely that any party will capture the majority in this election.
• Two key issues influencing voter opinions are combating corruption and ensuring access to a secure, affordable energy supply.
• The European Union reiterated its support for the PAS and provided it with political and financial aid. In just 2025, Brussels gave around 300 million euros to Moldova. 
• The most likely scenarios are either a coalition led by PAS, which would slow down the EU path, or a pro-Russian coalition in opposition to President Maia Sandu.
• Based on the most likely scenarios, businesses and NGOs might face a more challenging environment with increased Russian influence.
• If the PAS can win a majority or lead a coalition, the EU will likely discuss an accelerated EU accession for Moldova to avoid the reestablishment of close relations with Russia.

Summary

The Moldovan Parliamentary elections will take place on September 28, with the results helping to determine the country's future direction. The current government, led by President Maia Sandu, is seeking reelection, in which it will continue to pursue EU membership and adhere to EU norms and values. The opposing parties, which are pro-Russian, have gained significant traction recently, with dissent towards the current government, particularly over concerns in the economic sector. The election is expected to be a tight race, given that the pre-polling has no party as a heavy favorite. The Pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by President Sandu, and international organizations have expressed grave concerns over Russian interference in the election. President Sandu has warned Moldovan citizens about the negative consequences if the PAS were to lose the election. She has reiterated that Russia wants to turn Moldova against Europe and into a satellite state, similarly to what has happened in Belarus. Reportedly, Russia has spread disinformation about the current government, used social media to leverage pro-Russian beliefs, conducted voter buying, and illegally funded pro-Russian parties. 

Current Events/Major Issue

Moldova is in the home stretch of its parliamentary elections, which will take place on September 28. Despite its small size, Moldova plays a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Western Balkans, serving as a stronghold against Russian influence and fighting for a stronger democratic process to achieve EU membership by 2030. For this reason, this year’s elections will be crucial for the country’s future. The question is whether it will continue its accession process to the EU led by a pro-European president or whether a pro-Russian candidate will take over, strengthening Putin’s influence in the Balkans. 

The currently governing party, PAS, has yet to secure a majority in a fragmented political landscape, competing with twenty-one other parties, while also facing increasing interference from pro-Russian movements. President Sandu recently condemned Moscow’s growing efforts to meddle in election results and the voting process. Recent episodes clearly showcase a pro-Russian attempt to persuade voters to sabotage the current pro-Western party. For instance, Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch affiliated with Russia, has openly offered Moldovans $3,000 per month to join protests ahead of the election. This worrying and illegal vote-buying is coupled with Russia’s most common and robust foreign policy tool: disinformation campaigns. 

The “Matryoshka campaign,” a coordinated pro-Russian operation known among fact-checkers for spreading false news reports in the style of legitimate media outlets, is actively targeting Moldovans abroad, who proved crucial for the 2024 elections. Since the elections were called in April 2025, media outlets such as Euronews reported that a single campaign spread 39 fabricated stories in three months, compared to zero the year before. Additionally, in September 2025, Euronews identified several TikTok videos using AI deepfakes to spread disinformation on President Sandu, as well as to fabricate protest videos. As Russian hybrid tactics undermine the country’s stability and regional security, President Sandu affirmed: “Moldova may be the testing ground. But Europe is the target”.

Background

Russian influence on foreign elections is a recurring tool used by the Kremlin to expand influence. Disinformation campaigns remain the Russian hybrid weapon of choice. Moldova has faced sustained and escalating interference. The 2025 parliamentary elections are only the latest step in a series of political leadership changes that started with the 2023 local elections and continued with the 2024 presidential elections. Reports from 2023 already showed an escalating trend of pro-Russian movements aiming to destabilize the country and undermine the democratic process. 

At the time, Maia Sandu and the PAS accused Moscow of carrying out cyberattacks, spreading bomb threats, organizing paid protests, and funneling $5 million in two months to finance “criminal groups.” Among the beneficiaries of the Russian campaign was also the Sor party, a pro-Russian political party led by oligarch Ilan Shor. The Sor party was declared unconstitutional and later banned from the 2023 local elections, while its leader, a fugitive since 2019, has been accused of meddling in the upcoming elections. In late 2023, Moldova’s intelligence service (SIS) publicly exposed the so-called Șor Project: a Kremlin-backed scheme coordinated from Moscow to channel Russian funds, mobilize activists, and spread disinformation through fronts such as the “Victorie” bloc and the NGO “Evrazia.” This structure, with tens of thousands of activists and sympathizers, was designed to manipulate protests, buy votes, and obstruct Moldova’s European path. 

In 2024, ahead of the presidential elections, the PAS once again formally protested against the illegal and deliberate interference of Russian envoys in Moldova. Maia Sandu won the elections, confirming her presidency despite alleged massive interference from Moscow attempting to distort polls’ outcome. Shortly after, the 2024 Referendum on EU integration was also obstructed by attempts of vote-buying through pro-Russian politician Ilan Shor. The findings suggest that Kremlin interference in Moldovan elections has become a consolidated trend, and the upcoming parliamentary vote represents the latest challenge to pro-democratic parties posed by Russian hybrid warfare. 

Figure 1. The scheme of the ȘOR project (2023-2025).

Analysis and Future Outlook 

The elections in Moldova are seen as a key test of Russia's hybrid warfare tactics, including disinformation and vote-buying. Many believe that citizens prioritize daily life policies over geopolitical concerns. The pressing economic situation may sway voters toward pro-Russian parties offering quick solutions, despite significant EU support aimed at helping Moldova, especially during the energy crisis. However, many citizens still feel their well-being has not improved, which could influence their choices at the polls, potentially driven by Russian propaganda. This section discusses the key actors in the elections, their motivations, and possible outcomes.

Key actors and their motivations

In the current political landscape, two opposing party blocs are vying for influence. The PAS, led by President Maia Sandu, is focused on securing European Union (EU) accession and strengthening democratic institutions. Committed to anti-corruption measures and public sector reforms, PAS aims to achieve EU membership by 2030. They view the upcoming election as vital in countering Russian influence, warning that recent progress toward EU integration could be jeopardized if pro-Russian parties gain power, which has significant implications for national and regional security.

The pro-Russian bloc in Moldova, comprising the Patriotic Bloc and the Victory Bloc, aims to steer the country away from EU accession and strengthen ties with Russia. They attribute Moldova’s economic struggles to the current government's inefficiency and EU influence, seeking to block the PAS from gaining a majority. The Victory Bloc is particularly eager to establish a union state with Russia, and the pro-Russian bloc is expected to hinder Moldova's collaboration with NATO and its EU membership aspirations.

The EU represents a critical foreign actor. The bloc is interested in a democratic and stable Moldova to strengthen its front against Russia and push back efforts to undermine the progress made over the years in reforming the public and economic sectors, as well as the country’s independence from Russian energy. After the tight presidential races in Moldova and Romania, the EU needs a success story in Eastern Europe to keep the enlargement agenda moving.

Russia is the other critical foreign actor, interested in preventing Moldova from integrating into the West. The country has learned from previous unsuccessful campaigns to interfere in Moldovan elections and will try to deprive the PAS of its majority to push through its agenda. It also views Moldova as an essential buffer between Ukraine and NATO-member Romania. That is why the Kremlin wants to reestablish Russian influence over the country.

Figure 2. Comparison of exports to the EU vs the Russian Federation

Possible scenarios

Three possible scenarios are often mentioned:

1. PAS maintains majority: PAS must secure over 50% of parliamentary seats to maintain its close relations with the EU and continue reforms for EU accession. Amid ongoing Russian pressure, the EU may expedite Moldova's integration, creating stable conditions for businesses and NGOs and improving access to EU markets. However, this scenario is unlikely due to a tight race, with PAS as the sole pro-EU bloc.
2. PAS-led coalition: PAS fails to secure a majority but forms a coalition government, likely with Our Party, allowing it to continue a pro-EU agenda. This scenario is moderately stable but prone to internal disputes. Progress on EU integration will slow, making it challenging for businesses and NGOs to operate, particularly in relation to EU sanctions based on their ties with Russia. This is the most probable scenario.
3. Opposition-led coalition: The opposition parties form a "grand coalition," isolating President Sandu and polarizing the political landscape. Moldova may adopt a "foreign agent" law like Georgia's, controlling NGO funding. Closer ties with Russia could complicate business and NGO operations, as they might face Western sanctions if Russia becomes the main trade partner again. This is a plausible scenario.

Figure 3: Main points of Russia’s plan for Moldova from the leaked “Strategic objectives of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova” document.

Source: VSquare, Secret Kremlin Document: How Russia Plans to Overturn Moldova, published February 2023.

- Degrading Factors 

• Russian interference in the elections is unprecedented, with a broad range of hybrid tools deployed to prevent PAS from securing a majority.
• Cuts in U.S. funding to NGOs and media have weakened independent outlets, enabling Russia to expand its disinformation campaigns and narrative dominance.
• Although Russia maintains a modest military presence in Transnistria, it could rapidly reinforce its forces if pro-Russian parties win the elections.
• A tight electoral outcome could lead to contested results, fueling instability and providing Russia opportunities for sabotage and hybrid operations.

- Stabilization Factors 

• Moldova’s EU integration objective is enshrined in its constitution, making a reversal of this strategic orientation politically and legally difficult.
• The EU is supporting Moldova through a €1.9 billion Reform and Growth Facility, linking financial assistance to reform milestones and strengthening economic stability.
• The EU is Moldova’s largest trading partner, with 85% of foreign direct investment originating from EU countries—anchoring the country firmly within the European economic sphere.
• Moldova’s active civil society continues to bolster citizen resilience through advocacy and grassroots programs, despite persistent financial challenges.
• Building on past experiences of Russian interference, Moldova has strengthened its security services and electoral framework with EU support, increasing its capacity to safeguard the electoral process.

Impact and Recommendations

1. Increase Security Presence: Strengthen law enforcement and private security deployments around high-risk areas in Chisinau, particularly government buildings and public gathering sites, to deter unrest and manage potential clashes between PAS and pro-Russian supporters.
2. Enhance Cyber and Information Security: Expand monitoring and response capabilities against cyber intrusions and disinformation campaigns, especially during the election period and potential transition of power. Promote training within NGOs and the private sector to identify and report disinformation, including anti-PAS propaganda.
3. Safeguard Energy and Economic Stability: Prepare contingency plans for energy supply disruptions if a pro-Russian party assumes power. Businesses and NGOs reliant on energy should diversify suppliers and strengthen risk management frameworks.
4. Maintain Donor and Funding Stability: Anticipate shifts in donor priorities following the election outcome. NGOs should proactively engage with donors to ensure continued support for democratic reforms and adapt programming to maintain resilience.
5. Monitor Mobility Constraints: Political polarization may lead to restrictions on travel eastward or westward, depending on the electoral outcome. Organizations should update travel security protocols and advise staff accordingly.
6. Advance Employee Safety Protocols: NGOs and businesses should reinforce staff security training, emphasizing avoidance of protests, recognition of radicalized behavior, and safe operating procedures in volatile environments.
7. Strengthen International Partnerships: Deepen collaboration with Romania, the EU, and other international partners to maintain situational awareness and identify opportunities for coordinated responses in the post-election period.
8. Diversify Partnerships and Resources: Reduce overreliance on foreign donors—particularly from politically sensitive states such as Belarus or Georgia—by cultivating a broader network of local and international partners, including organizations like the ILO.
9. Conduct Financial Oversight: Businesses and NGOs should perform rigorous financial reviews to detect and prevent illicit funding flows that may support pro-Russian parties or destabilizing actors.

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