Myanmar Earthquake SpecialREPORT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, 2025, causing widespread destruction across Myanmar and neighboring Thailand. This expanded report provides updated casualty figures, assessment of current response efforts, and analysis of short to medium-term impacts.

Key Developments

• Rising Death Toll: Fatalities have increased dramatically to over 1,700 in Myanmar and 18 in Thailand, with numbers expected to rise further
• Rescue Operations: International aid is arriving but faces significant logistical and political challenges
• Ceasefire Announcement: The National Unity Government (NUG) has declared a two-week ceasefire to facilitate aid delivery
• Economic Impact: USGS estimates potential impact on up to 70% of Myanmar's GDP
• Disaster Response Considerations: Over the next 6 months, expect major reconstruction, health risks, and economic strain, especially in Myanmar due to ongoing conflict. Working in Myanmar for disaster response involves security risks, access issues, and other sensitivities, affecting both international and national staff.

Current Situation

The 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, 2025, with its epicenter near Mandalay, causing widespread damage. In Myanmar, the death toll has risen to over 1,700, with more than 3,400 injured and 130 missing, according to recent reports (ABC News). In Thailand, at least 18 people have died, mainly from a collapsed building in Bangkok, with 78 still missing. Rescue operations are active, but damaged roads and ongoing aftershocks complicate efforts.

International aid, including from India, China, and the EU, is supporting Myanmar, while the National Unity Government (NUG) has announced a two-week ceasefire to aid delivery. In Thailand, the government has declared Bangkok a disaster area, focusing on rescue at the collapsed site.

Impact Assessment

Immediate Impact:
There’s an urgent need for medical care, shelter, and food for thousands affected. Damaged infrastructure, like roads and utilities, is hindering rescue and daily life, while businesses face closures, impacting livelihoods.

Short-Term Impact (Next 6 Months):
Reconstruction will be a major focus, requiring significant resources. Health risks, such as disease outbreaks, are likely in crowded shelters. Economic strain will continue, particularly in tourism, with Myanmar’s situation worsened by its civil war, potentially shifting political dynamics.

Sensitivities for Disaster Response in Myanmar

Working in Myanmar involves challenges due to its political and security landscape. The military junta may restrict access, while conflict zones pose risks to staff. Damaged infrastructure complicates logistics, and cultural sensitivities, like handling religious sites, are crucial. Both international and national staff face safety concerns, with internationals at risk of detention and locals potentially facing reprisals.

Extended Report: Earthquake Emergency in Myanmar and Thailand

Overview

On March 28, 2025, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, with its epicenter near Mandalay, causing significant destruction and loss of life. The quake’s shallow depth amplified its impact, affecting not only Myanmar but also neighboring Thailand, particularly Bangkok. This report provides a detailed assessment of the situation, including updated casualty figures, damage reports, response efforts, and an analysis of short-term impacts and sensitivities for disaster assistance in Myanmar.

Current Status

The earthquake has led to a humanitarian crisis, with ongoing rescue efforts and international aid responses. Below is a detailed breakdown:

Casualties and Damage

• Myanmar: The death toll, reported by the military government and international news sources like ABC News and an X post by AP, has risen to over 1,700, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 10,000 based on USGS modeling. Over 3,400 are injured, and approximately 130 are missing. Damage includes collapsed buildings and critical infrastructure, with aftershocks continuing to cause panic.
• Thailand: In Bangkok, at least 18 deaths have been confirmed, primarily from the Chatuchak building collapse, with 78 still unaccounted for, as per ABC News. Other buildings experienced swaying, highlighting concerns about seismic preparedness.

Response Efforts

• Myanmar: The military government declared a state of emergency in six regions. International aid includes $5 million from the UN, field hospitals and rescue teams from India, and support from China, Russia, and the EU. The NUG announced a two-week ceasefire starting March 31, except for defensive actions, to prioritize aid, as reported by Reuters. Challenges include damaged transport networks and censorship limiting information flow.
• Thailand: Rescue operations focus on the Chatuchak site, with the government declaring Bangkok a disaster area. Limited foreign aid is directed here, given Myanmar’s greater need, according to AP News.

Impact Assessment

The earthquake’s effects are immediate and will extend over the short term, with significant implications for recovery.

Immediate Impact

• Humanitarian Crisis: Thousands require urgent medical attention, shelter, food, and clean water. The IFRC described the devastation as unprecedented in Asia, per ABC News.
• Infrastructure Damage: Compromised roads, bridges, and utilities hinder rescue and relief, with reports of collapsed airports and highways, as noted by Reuters.
• Economic Disruption: Business closures and loss of livelihoods are immediate, particularly in Mandalay and Bangkok, affecting local economies.

Short-Term Impact (Next 6 Months)

• Reconstruction and Recovery: Major efforts will be needed to rebuild homes, infrastructure, and public buildings, requiring significant financial and logistical resources. This is complicated in Myanmar by conflict.
• Health Concerns: Risk of disease outbreaks due to poor sanitation in temporary shelters, especially with displaced populations, as highlighted here by CNN.
• Economic Strain: Continued disruption to tourism and local businesses will strain economies, with Myanmar facing additional challenges due to its civil war.
• Political and Social Tensions: In Myanmar, the disaster may exacerbate existing tensions, potentially shifting power dynamics or increasing conflict over resources.

Sensitivities for Disaster Assistance Response in Myanmar

Working in Myanmar for disaster response involves several sensitivities due to its complex political and security landscape, detailed below:

Political Landscape

• The military junta’s control may restrict access to affected areas, with potential bureaucratic hurdles, as reported by Reuters. The NUG and resistance groups control certain territories, necessitating coordination with multiple authorities, per AP News.

Security Risks

• Ongoing civil war poses dangers to aid workers, with conflict zones increasing risks of being caught in crossfire. Landmines and unexploded ordnance are additional hazards, and aftershocks continue to threaten operations.

Access and Logistics

• Damaged infrastructure, including roads and airports, continues to complicate transportation of aid, as per The New York Times. Censorship and limited internet access hinder coordination, with reports of restricted media access, according to Al Jazeera.

Cultural and Social Considerations

• Myanmar’s diverse ethnic groups require culturally sensitive aid delivery, with damaged religious sites like pagodas and monasteries needing special handling, as evidenced in reports from NPR.

Humanitarian Principles

• Maintaining neutrality and impartiality is crucial to ensure aid reaches all affected, regardless of political affiliations.
• Collaboration with local NGOs can enhance effectiveness but requires vetting to avoid political entanglements.

Staff Safety

• International staff face risks of detention or kidnapping, while national staff may face reprisals based on ethnic or political backgrounds, as reported by CNN. Robust security protocols and evacuation plans are essential.

Recommendations

• Immediate Actions: Monitor casualty updates and coordinate with humanitarian partners to ensure security for aid convoys, especially in Myanmar’s conflict zones.
• Mid-Term Strategy: Support urban resilience initiatives in Thailand and advocate for a multinational task force to stabilize Myanmar, leveraging the NUG ceasefire.
• Long-Term Considerations: Assess the earthquake’s impact on Myanmar’s civil war dynamics and review corporate contingency plans for seismic risks in Southeast Asia.