Date: 14 AUG 2024
Analysts & Contributors: DA
Key Points
On October 18, 2023, the U.S. Embassy in Caracas issued a statement welcoming the signing of an electoral roadmap agreement between the Unitary Platform, a Venezuelan opposition alliance, and representatives of Nicolás Maduro, the current President of Venezuela. The confirmation of new elections in Venezuela was not coincidental, as it was one of the requirements established by the United States to ease sanctions on Venezuela eventually. It is worth mentioning U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela ceased shortly after the United States imposed sanctions on the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) in January 2019.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced the suspension of certain sanctions measures on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector operations; the gold sector of the Venezuelan economy; and U.S. person purchases in the secondary market of certain Venezuela sovereign bonds and equity. Nevertheless, it was clarified that other sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States on Venezuela were still in effect.
Sanctions were reestablished soon after, starting in January 2024, after the disqualification of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from the presidential race. The reimposition of mining sector sanctions was accompanied by oil sanctions in April 2024, following the detention of opposition political actors and social leaders, plus the reported harassment and intimidation applied to political opponents.
The 2024 Venezuela elections took place July 28, producing a result that triggered immense internal social unrest and mixed opinions within the international scenario. While some countries have already congratulated Maduro for his triumph, others have made public their recognition of the opposition presidential candidate, González, as the winner. More moderate positions have requested the disclosure of the election’s voting records.
The government of Venezuela faced several days of violent protests all over the country in the aftermath of the announcement of Nicolás Maduro as the most-voted candidate. Demonstrators clashed with the police in the streets, causing fatalities, injuries, and multiple arrests.
Opposition leaders denounce that they are suffering from targeted attacks. On August 2, the headquarters of Venezuelan Corina Machado was ransacked by a half dozen masked assailants, breaking down doors and seizing valuable documents and equipment. Additionally, President Maduro expressed openly that Machado and candidate González “should be behind bars” for, in his opinion, promoting post-election violence and seeking to destabilize the Venezuelan government. International concern is
increasing, as massive arrests of opposition supporters occur systematically, and a crisis of legitimacy takes over Venezuela.
Summary
Introduction
On Sunday, July 28, 2024, Venezuela held its eagerly awaited presidential elections. President Nicolás Maduro, who has been ruling the country since 2013, competed for his continued hold on power against nine other candidates. Among them, Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat representing the opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), stood out as the candidate most likely to win the election. At midnight that Sunday, the National Electoral Council of Venezuela (CNE) announced that Maduro would be the next Venezuelan President, obtaining 51% of the votes according to the CNE’s data. The election’s results provoked a wide range of reactions in the international community, with some countries questioning the transparency of the electoral process. Some global leaders are now demanding Venezuela to disclose the full voting records. Within Venezuela, opposition supporters have taken to the streets to protest against what they believe is electoral fraud. As of August 6, advocacy groups claim that at least 24 people have been killed in post-election protests.
Protests against Maduro’s government paralyze the country
Rioting started on July 29, when hundreds of protesters went out in the streets of Caracas, Venezuela’s capital city. In disbelief at the figures presented by the CNE, which would place Maduro in power until 2030, demonstrators chanted anti-Maduro slogans, marched, and ripped the current President’s campaign posters. Soon, civil unrest spread country-wide. Reports indicate that Venezuelan police responded by firing tear gas and rubber bullets. Demonstrations continued the day after, on July 30, motivated by Corina Machado’s statement about the supposed manipulation of the electoral results. Valencia, Maracay, San Cristobal, Maracaibo and Barquisimeto cities, and Caracas registered marches throughout the day. As of early August, it is estimated that more than 2,000 people were arrested as a result of the protests, with several other wounded and even dead after confrontations with the police.
The local government reads this scenario as a “coup" regarding the Venezuelan Minister of Defense’s declarations. It should be noted that the military is a key actor in Maduro’s administration’s steadiness, including high-ranking officials having already expressed their loyalty and support to Maduro as the “legitimately re-elected” President. Nicolás Maduro gained numerous detractors during his mandate, as he continued the legacy of the late Hugo Chávez and his Bolivarian revolution. Under Maduro’s leadership, the country has experienced severe political and economic volatility that produced the migration of more than 7.77 million Venezuelans, which according to the International Organization for Migration is the second-largest displacement in the world.
Media sources stated that military and police patrols were scheduled for July 31, while Maduro announced he had requested the Supreme Court to audit the presidential election results and certify the vote count. Social instability and demonstrations continued. Immediately afterward, Venezuela’s government doubled down the efforts to contain the internal turbulence and confirmed the creation of two maximum-security prisons to punish those who protested against allegations of electoral fraud. On August 3, thousands of people returned to the streets in support of González and the opposition leaders, in response to Corina Machado's call to protest against the electoral results and the government's threats to arrest opposition members. The same day, Maduro encouraged his supporters to participate in “the mother of all marches” elsewhere in Caracas. The national government's actions against opposition leaders persist, and on August 5, a criminal investigation against opposition presidential candidate González and leader Machado was officially announced. However, through social media, Machado and González continue to call on their supporters to take to the streets of Caracas. This time, it involves a vigil "for the freedom of political prisoners in Venezuela", scheduled for August 8. In this regard, the conflict between Maduro and the opposition seems far from diminishing.
 Demonstrations and clashes between protesters and state forces during July 2024. Information collected as part of an open-source investigation. |
World reactions to the elections: rejection, voting records requests, and congratulations
The first governments to congratulate President Maduro for his performance in the elections were those from Beijing and Moscow. China has been a key economic supporter of Maduro’s government, and Chavez before him. Having Venezuela as a strategic ally allows China to counter U.S. influence in Latin America, and secure favorable terms for oil and other resources. For its part, Putin has highlighted the strategic nature of the relationship between Russia and Venezuela. In addition, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated recently that cooperation with Caracas’ government will deepen, “including sensitive areas”. Iran, Cuba, Honduras, and Bolivia are some of the countries that have also publicly backed Maduro’s reelection.
On the other hand, many countries have recognized Maduro’s adversary, Gonzalez, as the successful candidate in the elections. The refusal of these State leaders to accept Venezuela’s CNE result generated enormous disgust in Caracas, which occasioned severe diplomatic issues. At a regional level, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, Dominican Republic and Uruguay questioned the vote count presented by the CNE and put at stake the transparency of the Venezuelan electoral process. Maduro’s response was categorical: he withdrew Venezuela’s diplomatic missions from the countries mentioned and demanded their diplomats leave the country. In the case of Argentina, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced “harassment” to its diplomatic headquarters in Caracas, succeeding Maduro’s government decision to cut off the electricity supply. This Embassy housed six Venezuelan opposition figures, who were welcomed as asylum seekers. After the departure of the Argentinian diplomats, it was known that Brazil was taking custody of its neighbors’ Embassy, including the asylees.
Within this group of countries that don’t rely on Venezuela’s government official results, is the United States. As per the statement issued by the U.S. Department of State, on August 1, 2024, “it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election”. The Carter Center, an American nongovernmental organization invited to observe the Venezuelan presidential election of 2024, supports the U.S. government's decision. This entity states that the results of the election declared by the CNE cannot be verified or corroborated. Moreover, the assessment of the Carter Center reflects that the elections did not meet international standards of electoral integrity, and therefore can not be considered democratic.
Still, there are some members of the international community who, without affirming that Gonzalez is the election winner, believe that having access to the voting records is the safest manner to determine the veracity of the results. Among these countries are Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Jamaica, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay. European countries, such as Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Poland have also adopted this position. The European Union, through its High Representative, has called for further independent verification of the electoral records, preferably by a globally recognized entity. In the meantime, the opposition has released electoral voting records that presumably demonstrate the victory of Gonzalez, who would have obtained 83.5% of the votes. The Venezuelan government these records are “forged documents”, but has not released the official voting records at the moment.
Regional and global alliances
Venezuela is an intriguing case within the Southern Cone. It has been aligned with a left-centered ideology for the last 26 years, which places the country on the other side of the fence of the Americas’ historical leader, the United States. For years, Caracas’ government found good friends in its Southern neighbors during the times they were ruled by ideologically compatible leaders. Nestor and Cristina Kirchner in Argentina, current Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and Evo Morales in Bolivia are just a few examples of this affirmation. Regarding extra-continental powers, Venezuela has developed a tight relationship with Russia and China. Having said that, this State’s situation seems similar to Cuba but with a key difference. As of 2023, Venezuela had the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves with approximately 303 billion barrels, which represents 17% of global reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA’s reports indicate that this country’s natural gas reserves are significant, constituting 73% of total natural gas reserves in South America. Although Venezuela’s role in the world’s energy supply will be addressed later, the importance of Venezuela as an energy producer can not be overstated when analyzing the complex network of alliances and enmities that exist towards the South American State.
At the moment, Venezuela could be categorized as a member of the counter-West bloc of countries, considering its course of action and consistent anti-imperialist speech. This positioning within the Americas has dragged Venezuela further from more moderate country leaders of the region and reinforced the idea of this State as a strategic gateway for China and Russia in the South Atlantic, in the eyes of the U.S. Previous to the elections, a quick appreciation of the region’s power dynamics would situate Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, and Mexico as the closest States to Venezuela, as they are presently ruled by left-leaning Presidents. Just before the elections, President Maduro said publicly that a “bloodbath” would follow if he didn’t win the polls. Remarkably, Brazilian Lula Da Silva was one of the first to express himself about Maduro’s outburst, by mentioning he was “frightened” by his statement and stressing the importance of respecting the democratic process. Chilean Gabriel Boric supported Brazil’s vision shortly thereafter. These signs indicated the willingness of Latin American countries, regardless of their political spectrum, to withdraw their support for Venezuela in light of the upcoming elections. This situation is evident in the map shared in the previous section, where the adherence of regional countries is clear: either requesting the voting records to verify the electoral outcome or recognizing the opposition candidate González as the undisputed winner of the election. The unfolding scenario has differed in other parts of the world, where Maduro's victory has received meaningfully more support.
The reactions towards Venezuela’s elections in the Americas show some contrast, especially, with the eastern hemisphere. China's soft power strategy is not new, nor is its ambition to infiltrate its influence in Latin America, a strategic region due to its geographic position and reserves of all kinds of resources. The isolation experienced by Venezuela in the aftermath of Western sanctions was partially compensated by the partnership and cooperation with China. Last September, President Xi Jinping announced China’s ties with Venezuela were upgraded to an “all-weather strategic partnership”, a status given to Beijing’s diplomatic partners. Likewise, it is known that China is the main creditor of Maduro’s government. Russia’s conception of Venezuela involves the latter being a symbolic ally, as it’s a vehicle to carry out power demonstrations in an area that is historically identified as part of the U.S.’ backyard. In addition, collaboration in nuclear energy and oil production within the framework of U.S. sanctions is another topic that brings together these two States as well. Regarding Iran, Maduro recently addressed the bond with Tehran as a “brotherhood”, essential to "continue defeating the hegemonic ambitions that threaten multilateralism and world peace." Moreover, these alliance systems have recently been embodied in social media networks, against the backdrop of disinformation campaigns accusations from both the opposition and the government of Venezuela. On August 8, Maduro announced through his X (former Twitter) official account that he would order a 10-day block on access to this platform in Venezuela, augmenting that X’s owner uses it to promote hatred after the country’s disputed presidential election. Earlier, Maduro urged Venezuelans to delete WhatsApp from their phones, as he considers this app is “being used by fascists to spread violence”, and suggested using Telegram or Chinese Wechat instead.
Sanctions
Sanctions are a decisive factor upon examining the development of Venezuela’s elections. As mentioned above in the Key Points, economic sanctions have a huge impact on this South American country, as they substantially reduce the access of Venezuela to foreign markets. Before beginning the assessment of the sanctions themselves, it is helpful to provide some data that allows for the characterization of the Venezuelan economy as it stands today. Venezuela’s annual inflation rate in 2023 was approximately 337%, and accumulated inflation for 2024 is almost 100%. Reports cited by the United Nations show that early 82% of Venezuelans live in poverty, and 53% live in extreme poverty, with incomes too low to afford a basic food basket. GDP per capita, expressed in U.S. dollars, is estimated to be 3.87 thousand according to IMF’s data in 2024.
Venezuela has been sanctioned by Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States. The United Nations has not issued sanctions at the present moment. U.S. Venezuela’s sanctions program started in 2005 when Washington’s government first imposed targeted sanctions on Venezuelan individuals and entities engaged in criminal, antidemocratic, or corrupt actions. Later on, the Trump administration included financial sanctions, sectoral sanctions, and sanctions on the government, including sanctions against Nicolás Maduro himself. During Biden’s mandate, the approach has been different: lifting of sanctions on the Maduro regime instead of the prior “maximum pressure” policy. By lifting, and not long afterward reimposing sanctions, the U.S. government faces a credibility issue which happens in the light of other credibility tests globally, namely Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Israel-Gaza crisis. This is the reason the next steps towards Venezuela will represent more than a foreign policy decision, but rather a demonstration of the influential power that Washington is capable of exercising in its own backyard. Media outlets are already speculating about modifications in the sanctions policy to add more restrictive measures in the short term. Despite this, no formal decision has been communicated as of August 9.
Geopolitics of energy: the role of oil and gas
Ukraine war has revealed a growing problem, especially for Europe: a limited diversity in the supply of hydrocarbon-exporting countries, and the transformation of Russia's abundant energy resources into a weapon of war. In this context, and until sustainable energies surpass the relevance of fossil fuels in the global energy matrix, the relative importance of countries with large gas and oil reserves in terms of energy security is still considerable. Beyond the political distance between Western powers and Maduro’s administration, it would not be prudent, in geostrategic terms, to leave Venezuela's hydrocarbon reserves under the influence of Russia and China, the latter being a major energy consumer in the global market. Having said that, the question of sanctions regains significance as an instrument to exert pressure on Venezuela and its energy industry.
Some expert opinions already consider Venezuela to be a “failed petrostate”: oil-dependent; economically troubled; indebted; and politically uncertain. In order to underpin the hard-hit Venezuelan hydrocarbons industry, it is clear that substantial modifications to the legal and institutional framework governing the sector must be urgently implemented. Despite this, additional measures would be required to boost international confidence in Venezuela’s supplies, such as projecting internal solidity and restoring trust in the Venezuelan political system. Given these conditions, the Essequibo issue consolidates as a boost to the weak energy policy of the Venezuelan government, which, constrained by international sanctions, sees the annexation of the Essequibo as a political victory. This territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has roots in the end of the nineteenth century, when the latter was still a British colony and arbitrators from Britain, Russia, and the United States determined the boundary in favor of the British. Caracas’ government assures that American and European arbitrators conspired to deprive Venezuela of the land at stake and supports its position in an agreement signed in 1966 between Venezuela, the UK, and the colony of British Guiana which would resolve the dispute effectively nullifying the original arbitration. Conversely, Guyana states that the first ruling is valid and allows the authorities of Georgetown to develop oil exploration and subsequent exploitation. Oil companies, including ExxonMobil, have discovered 46 oil fields in Guyana, with four of these findings occurring in 2023. With potential oil deposits exceeding 11 billion barrels, if fully developed, these resources could elevate Guyana's population to greater wealth than those of Kuwait or the UAE, according to Forbes magazine. The territorial litigation is nowadays being treated in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), whose jurisdiction is not recognized by Venezuela.
Future Outlook
While Maduro continues to fuel a harsh discourse against opponents and dissidents of the government's ideology, the international community is growing impatient with the absence of official records from the presidential vote. It does not seem, at least for now, that the authorities in Caracas are considering instances of consensus and cooperation, both nationally and globally, that could help pacify the country's internal situation. On the contrary, tensions appear to be escalating day by day, with reports of arbitrary detentions and disruptions in the democratic system becoming increasingly common. The potential reimposition of sanctions, or even the issuance of new measures, will further complicate recovery efforts. Based on the inflation and poverty numbers, ongoing instability and absence of prospects for change in the field of economic policy as long as Maduro remains in power, complete a daunting setting for economic resurgence.
Venezuela’s case is a crisp example of world polarization, marked by the indirect confrontation between the United States and Western allies, and the axis primarily formed by China, Russia, and Iran. In the present case, the world can’t afford another escalating conflict, but either can leave the situation to chance, considering the legal mechanisms available under public international law and the potential intervention of international organizations. Migratory flow is likely to continue and even to increase, worsening the state of affairs of the Central American Migration Corridor and the migrant caravans heading to the United States. In like manner, the mentioned scenario is the perfect breeding ground for criminal organizations such as Aragua Train (in Spanish, Tren de Aragua) to expand their operations and exploit vulnerable populations for their own benefit.
The territorial dispute over the Essequibo could quickly escalate if Venezuela continues to pressure Guyana to enforce its claim over the region in question. While an armed conflict is remote today, it is important to note that Guyana has received support from France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, while Venezuela's allies could indirectly gain access to the large oil reserves of the Essequibo if Venezuela decides to unilaterally initiate exploration projects in the area. In a region lacking significant interstate conflicts, this rivalry could complicate Venezuela's relations with neighboring countries.
Recommendations
Travelers should take into account the flight suspension between Venezuela and Panama, the Dominican Republic and Peru which entered into force on 31 July 2024 per order of President Maduro. In this sense, approximately 95 weekly commercial flights have been affected by the suspension of air travel to the mentioned countries. Due to ongoing crime and escalating unsteadiness following the post-election protests, it is not advisable to travel to Venezuela, as the diplomatic protection scope has been severely reduced as a consequence of the withdrawal of multiple diplomatic missions from this country. As per the information provided by the U.S. Embassy in Caracas’ website, the U.S. government has presently no ability to provide emergency services to American citizens in Venezuela.
Foreign citizens are strongly encouraged to avoid areas near rallies and demonstrations whenever possible and remain cautious around any large gatherings, in contemplation of the active threat of massive arrests. As political instability and economic hardship continue to fuel widespread unrest, if travelling to Venezuela is strictly necessary, monitoring local media for updates and complying with local regulations is highly recommended. It is noteworthy that internet service is typically slow since high-speed connections are not widely available. On the same line, power outages can disrupt mobile signals and internet access throughout the country, including in Caracas.
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