Publish Date: 22OCT2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
The Russian military industry has been granted the authority to utilize all reserves for artillery production.
According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is disguising its preparations for a new offensive by labeling its actions as "active defense"
The number of women in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased by 40% in two years
Germany handed over another package of military aid to Ukraine
The Ukrainian military has recently received a shipment of the latest Canadian-made Senator MRAP armored vehicles
Ukrainians who choose to relocate to Canada will be eligible to receive up to $20,000 in compensation
The lease of the air defense system to Ukraine has commenced
Putin urged Ukraine to revoke the decree that bans negotiations and declare its readiness for dialogue
The Ukrainian Parliament has adopted the Law on the Prohibition of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
In April of next year, Japan's Immigration Services Agency will launch a program aimed at assisting foreign nationals from conflict zones in adapting to life in Japan
Latvia has closed two checkpoints on the border with Moscow: Vientuli and Pededze
The European Union has extended the temporary protection regime for refugees from Ukraine until March 2025
The majority of Germans support Chancellor Scholz's decision to refrain from transferring long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelensky had planned a visit to Israel as a sign of solidarity, but the Israeli side refused to accept him
Biden is requesting $100 billion from Congress to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
The analysis of last week's map indicates that Russian forces are persisting with their large-scale offensive along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, Bakhmut area, and Avdiivka. Multiple locations are being targeted by shelling, drone, and rocket attacks. According to Ukrainian sources, Russians have made certain advances around Avdiivka. Meanwhile, recent satellite imagery also reveals the barriers that have been placed by the Russians at the entrance to the Sevastopol harbor. Given the increasingly frequent Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean Peninsula, securing these positions is crucial for the Russians. However, according to top Russian officials, Moscow seems generally satisfied. The Russian president stated at the beginning of the previous week that Ukrainian losses during the counteroffensive were approximately eight times higher than Russian military losses. However, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russians should be concerned about the possibility of a "larger-scale Ukrainian operation" in the occupied Kherson Oblast. They explained that this was because Ukrainian marines had advanced on the occupied bank of the Dnipro River.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are pointing out daily that their counteroffensive is making progress, albeit slowly, and that they are forming new brigades. According to sources, at least five new brigades are being formed in preparation for a possible counteroffensive in 2024. It is also worth mentioning that Ukrainians have made some minor advancements in the vicinity of the devastated city of Bakhmut while defending against Russian attacks in the area of Avdiivka. According to their sources, Russian attempts to encircle the area and make limited progress have come at a high cost. Kyiv claims to have destroyed over 300 pieces of military equipment and eliminated 3,000 enemy troops in a week of defensive fighting in the surrounding area. According to Andrii Biletskyi, the commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, while Russian forces have made significant advancements in radio-electronic warfare, and drones, and possess a substantial amount of high-quality artillery, their regular ground forces are considered obsolete. Simultaneously, Ukraine's special forces are increasingly using daring raids and distraction tactics to free Crimea. As they claim, the objective is not only to sabotage some of the military equipment that Moscow keeps close to the shore but also to convey a message to the Ukrainian citizens in the territory.
A general conclusion that can be made is that both Kyiv and Moscow are seeking to gain crucial military momentum before the challenging weather conditions of the fall and winter months set in.
Priority Updates
The number of women in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased by 40% in two years
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has noted that the number of women serving in the army has increased by 12, 000 over the past 2 years. Currently, there are nearly 43, 000 female soldiers in service.
Germany handed over another package of military aid to Ukraine
The package includes the following items: 3 Gepard memory sticks; 20 RQ-35 Heidrun unmanned aerial vehicles; 20 Vector unmanned aerial vehicles; 1 Biber bridge paver, 3 HX81 tractors and 3 trailers for them; 13 border guard vehicles; and 3, 872 155-mm smoke shells.
Internal sources
The Ukrainian military has recently received a shipment of the latest Canadian-made Senator MRAP armored vehicles
The MRAP vehicle has significantly improved mine protection, offering added benefits for the military in various combat missions. This vehicle was developed based on the experience gained from using the Senator in the Ukrainian Defense Forces during a full-scale war.
Internal sources
Ukrainians who choose to relocate to Canada will be eligible to receive up to $20,000 in compensation
Ukrainians who choose to relocate to Canada will be eligible to receive up to $20, 000 in compensation, as well as secure official job opportunities. While some individuals may be seeking illegal means to cross borders and obtain refugee status, others are focused on reading Relocation Inside. This resource provides valuable information on obtaining a permanent EU residence permit within 45 days, accessing free travel to Europe, and utilizing state programs offered by various countries.
Internal sources
The lease of the air defense system to Ukraine has commenced
According to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, Ukraine is leasing air defense systems from international partners to enhance its defense capabilities. He emphasized that the transfer of the air defense system to Ukraine is a "positive sign" and mentioned that the names of the countries that leased their air defense systems are not disclosed. Although weapon leasing is a widely adopted international practice used by numerous countries, including those in Europe, Ukraine must secure its energy sector before winter.
Putin urged Ukraine to revoke the decree that bans negotiations and declare its readiness for dialogue
On October 16, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, stated that for Ukraine to initiate negotiations with Russia, it should revoke the decree that prohibits such negotiations and express its willingness to engage in dialogue. "The President of Ukraine has issued a decree that prohibits conducting peace negotiations with us. To everyone, and himself. Well, how can one negotiate if they don't want it, they even issued a regulatory document that prohibits those negotiations," Putin said in an interview with China Central Television ahead of his visit to China.
The Ukrainian Parliament has adopted the Law on the Prohibition of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
The Ukrainian Parliament has adopted a proposal for the Law on the Prohibition of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which falls under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) has been accused of collaborating with the Russian Federation following its full-scale invasion in 2022. It was not stated whether such a decision is related to the information about the Russian Orthodox Church running private military companies to train fighters for deployment in Ukraine. However, as reported by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on October 19th, the Russian Orthodox Church receives funding for these activities from financial and industrial groups closely associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. These funds are reportedly donated as "charitable contributions" for the "construction of churches." One example of a church-run PMC named by the SBU is the St. Andrew's Cross organization, which is based in the Kronstadt Naval Cathedral in northwestern Russia. The UOC claimed that it was no longer aligned with the Russian Orthodox Church and denied the allegations, considering the draft law unconstitutional. If approved, the law would ban the activities of religious organizations affiliated with centers of influence "in a state that carries out armed aggression against Ukraine."
In April of next year, Japan's Immigration Services Agency will launch a program aimed at assisting foreign nationals from conflict zones in adapting to life in Japan
This program was primarily developed to assist Ukrainian citizens in Japan, where there are over 2. 5 thousand individuals. It aims to support people from conflict zones who do not qualify for refugee status by offering them a six-month or one-year Japanese language study program. Additionally, participants will have the opportunity to learn about the laws and customs of the country. Furthermore, the program provides financial assistance.
Internal sources
Latvia has closed two checkpoints on the border with Moscow: Vientuli and Pededze
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country reported this decision to prevent violations of public order, threats to national security, and potential negative consequences resulting from the situation in the Russian Federation. According to Latvian officials, concrete barriers have already been installed on the border. In addition, border guards who were previously stationed at closed border points have now been reassigned to other areas, specifically the Latvian-Belarusian border, where there is a significant influx of illegal migration.
Political Developments
The European Union has extended the temporary protection regime for refugees from Ukraine until March 2025
The EU's Temporary Protection Directive provides displaced persons with immediate collective protection and serves as an alternative to the asylum process. This temporary protection allows Ukrainians to access housing, find employment, and receive social benefits in EU countries. According to EU estimates, currently, 4.1 million Ukrainians are registered for temporary protection.
Internal sources
The majority of Germans support Chancellor Scholz's decision to refrain from transferring long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine
For the time being, the majority of Germans support Chancellor Scholz's decision to refrain from transferring long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. According to a poll conducted by the YouGov institute at the request of DPA, 55% of respondents agree with Scholz's position, while 26% consider it to be wrong.
Volodymyr Zelensky had planned a visit to Israel as a sign of solidarity, but the Israeli side refused to accept him
Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky had planned a visit to Israel as a gesture of solidarity. However, the Israeli side declined to accept him, citing that it was "not the right time." According to sources cited by the Ynet publication, Zelensky expressed his desire to accompany US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has already made two visits to the country in the past week.
Biden is requesting $100 billion from Congress to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
US President Joseph Biden plans to ask Congress for approximately $100 billion to help Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as to enhance border security. It should be noted that the details of this request are still being finalized. It is worth noting that Ukraine has attracted nearly $34 billion in external financing from its allies since the beginning of the year. The European Union has provided the largest support, with $14. 6 billion. An additional $12 billion was received from the sale of military bonds.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
The previous week began with a massive drone and missile attack carried out by Russia on multiple Ukrainian positions. Simultaneously, Russian forces are continuing to launch ground attacks on various fronts in eastern Ukraine, while they are also preparing new weapons for deployment. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that Russia confirmed on October 17th the deployment of the TOS-2 Tosochka 220mm thermobaric rocket launcher vehicle in Ukraine, along with extended-range projectiles. The Russians continue to hold the initiative in the Svativ sector, which is currently the most active and intense part of the front. They also achieved partial success near Vodyanyi and Opytny. The battles along the entire frontline are intensifying, as evidenced by the data that shows over 100 combat clashes occurred on October 20 alone. The Russian defense forces were also engaged, specifically the Russian Federation (RF) air defense systems. It has been reported that they intercepted 28 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, and over the Black Sea on October 18. Additionally, one day later, Russian security forces were involved in preventing an attack on a military convoy in the Zaporizhzhia region. According to reports, the suspect allegedly planned to place an explosive device along the route of a convoy of Russian military equipment. The device was said to have been assembled using mortar shells and components obtained from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
On the other hand, Ukrainians started the week by targeting Russian artillery near Bakhmut and advancing to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The village of Pishchanivka, located on the left bank, was the main focus of their operations. According to Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian marines have reached this village. Meanwhile, their defense forces are successfully holding back the Russian forces while also conducting assault operations to the south of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, they have achieved partial success to the south of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. An important breakthrough occurred on Tuesday (October 17) when Ukraine claimed to have executed one of the most devastating attacks on Russian air assets since the start of the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the assault involved longer-range ballistic missiles donated by the United States. Furthermore, Ukrainian troops reportedly eliminated 800 Russian soldiers and destroyed 26 artillery systems and 14 tanks on that day alone. It is worth noting that there are opinions suggesting that the counteroffensive is gaining momentum with the recent arrival of US military equipment, particularly M1 Abrams tanks, in Ukraine. Strikes on Crimea are also being conducted. One of the larger attacks occurred on October 18, when a missile struck the weapon stockpiles of Russia's Black Sea Fleet near the village of Sakharna Holovka, next to Sevastopol.
Multiple sources
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from October 9 to October 15, several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, when air alerts were mostly concentrated between midnight and 3 PM, with the peak occurring from 1 PM to 2 PM, in the past week, they have been concentrated at midnight and noon, with another peak at 8 PM.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes (147 times) or between 30 minutes and 1 hour (142 times). It was rare to encounter air raid alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 3 times.
● Furthermore, when comparing to the previous period, it is worth noting that there has been a slight change in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts. Previously, Tuesdays were identified as the most eventful days, followed by Fridays and Sundays. However, the data from the last seven days indicates a subtle difference. Thursdays were the most frequent days for Air Raid Alerts, occurring 78 times, closely followed by Wednesdays with 67 occurrences. However, on other days, Air Raid Alerts were also very frequent, occurring between 45 and 49 times.
● Finally, the regions of Donetsk and Kherson had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 52 and 51 respectively. In contrast, the Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivksk regions had a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 1 each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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Travel Risk Management Support: Our approach is tailored to the unique risks of travel in designated regions, including High and Extreme risk locations. We offer policy guidance and protocols for both expatriates and national staff operating in Ukraine. Our services include planning, management, and monitoring for all travel, aligned with client-specific operational needs. This covers the creation of customized Journey Management Plans, location assessments, traveler briefings, and en-route tracking to ensure personnel safety.
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